BUMBLEBEE

A case on Key-Drop (BESTSELLERS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$22.34

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $19.55 from 115 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.75%

18.7K openings, odds method

Variance

7.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88.34%±10.932,373 openings

7 days

88.26%±4.3015.3K openings

30 days

87.75%±3.9218.7K openings

since tracking started

87.75%±3.9218.7K openings

77.0%88.5%100.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,373	88.34%±10.9	+0.2σ	odds
7d	15.3K	88.26%±4.30	+0.3σ	odds
30d	18.7K	87.75%±3.92	+0.1σ	odds
All	18.7K	87.75%±3.92	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values115 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$8,833	0.9%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 50,000	$6,040	0.6%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$4,012	0.4%	0	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$3,775	0.4%	2	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25,000	$1,685	0.3%	0	0.7	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$1,572	0.3%	3	0.7	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$1,417	0.3%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$1,178	0.3%	0	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$921	0.3%	2	1.1	1.78×
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 14,286	$787	0.3%	2	1.3	1.52×
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$609	0.3%	3	1.7	1.78×
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$559	0.3%	3	1.9	1.60×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$276	0.3%	4	3.6	1.12×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$154	0.1%	1	1.7	0.59×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 5,882	$148	0.1%	3	3.2	0.94×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$147	0.1%	3	1.9	1.60×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$146	0.1%	2	1.7	1.19×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$144	0.1%	1	1.9	0.53×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$140	0.1%	3	1.9	1.60×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$137	0.1%	0	1.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 5,000	$137	0.1%	5	3.7	1.33×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$136	0.1%	0	1.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 7,692	$136	0.1%	1	2.4	0.41×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$136	0.1%	5	3.6	1.40×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$133	0.1%	2	2.1	0.97×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$133	0.1%	1	3.7	0.27×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 7,143	$131	0.1%	0	2.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$130	0.1%	3	2.6	1.14×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 9,091	$128	0.1%	0	2.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,381	$122	0.3%	6	7.9	0.76×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,326	$119	0.3%	7	8.1	0.87×
AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,273	$115	0.3%	15	8.2	1.82×
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,128	$110	0.3%	8	8.8	0.91×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$108	0.1%	2	3.4	0.59×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,083	$107	0.3%	9	9.0	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$104	0.1%	0	3.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,041	$104	0.3%	6	9.2	0.65×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,961	$101	0.3%	5	9.6	0.52×
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,887	$96.47	0.3%	13	9.9	1.31×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 61	$71.39	6.0%	332	305.8	1.09×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 114	$62.50	2.8%	156	164.2	0.95×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 49	$56.68	6.0%	347	385.3	0.90×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 275	$56.08	1.0%	40	68.2	0.59×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 118	$55.32	2.4%	155	158.7	0.98×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 61	$53.97	4.5%	299	306.4	0.98×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 60	$53.21	4.5%	325	310.7	1.05×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 145	$42.18	1.5%	97	129.5	0.75×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 141	$41.68	1.5%	93	132.5	0.70×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 139	$41.37	1.5%	96	134.5	0.71×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 183	$39.83	1.1%	75	102.5	0.73×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 91	$38.98	2.2%	161	205.6	0.78×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 161	$37.37	1.2%	108	116.4	0.93×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 181	$36.98	1.0%	156	103.8	1.50×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 81	$36.63	2.3%	200	232.7	0.86×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 275	$35.79	0.7%	54	68.0	0.79×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 35	$31.14	4.5%	174	535.0	0.33×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 89	$30.98	1.8%	90	211.6	0.43×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 58	$24.70	2.2%	149	324.6	0.46×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 39	$24.06	3.1%	173	478.2	0.36×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 39	$23.87	3.2%	179	485.9	0.37×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 21	$22.62	5.5%	348	885.2	0.39×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 36	$22.06	3.1%	316	519.1	0.61×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$20.70	8.0%	1,475	1417.4	1.04×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$20.29	2.1%	435	374.4	1.16×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 46	$19.44	2.2%	416	407.0	1.02×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 42	$18.51	2.3%	298	449.9	0.66×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 39	$17.89	2.3%	320	480.5	0.67×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 336	$17.55	0.3%	32	55.8	0.57×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 412	$17.53	0.2%	275	45.5	6.04×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 231	$16.90	0.4%	130	81.0	1.61×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 291	$15.79	0.3%	43	64.5	0.67×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 265	$14.90	0.3%	37	70.8	0.52×
Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 207	$14.90	0.4%	62	90.7	0.68×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 263	$14.83	0.3%	54	71.2	0.76×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 254	$14.53	0.3%	56	73.6	0.76×
Galil AR \| Eco (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 198	$14.48	0.4%	55	94.8	0.58×
Galil AR \| Eco (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 186	$13.92	0.4%	63	101.0	0.62×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 207	$12.97	0.3%	46	90.5	0.51×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 222	$12.71	0.3%	69	84.3	0.82×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,316	$12.31	0.0%	14	14.2	0.98×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 228	$12.09	0.3%	59	82.3	0.72×
MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 730	$11.90	0.1%	28	25.7	1.09×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 205	$11.31	0.3%	51	91.4	0.56×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 191	$10.84	0.3%	53	98.0	0.54×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 151	$10.65	0.4%	83	124.1	0.67×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 118	$9.00	0.4%	114	158.2	0.72×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 112	$8.68	0.4%	128	167.7	0.76×
P250 \| Wingshot (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 690	$8.53	0.1%	19	27.2	0.70×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 373	$8.46	0.1%	43	50.2	0.86×
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 680	$7.91	0.1%	22	27.5	0.80×
AWP \| Phobos (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 294	$6.20	0.1%	51	63.7	0.80×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 361	$5.74	0.1%	42	51.9	0.81×
MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 172	$4.82	0.1%	72	108.7	0.66×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 46	$4.76	0.5%	242	404.8	0.60×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 138	$4.53	0.2%	80	136.2	0.59×
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 228	$3.99	0.1%	54	82.1	0.66×
AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 144	$3.97	0.1%	77	129.9	0.59×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 186	$3.59	0.1%	87	100.8	0.86×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 90	$3.47	0.2%	148	208.8	0.71×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 83	$3.31	0.2%	160	225.1	0.71×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 147	$3.27	0.1%	104	127.6	0.81×
P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 131	$3.00	0.1%	97	143.4	0.68×
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 72	$2.58	0.2%	176	258.8	0.68×
AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 68	$2.48	0.2%	173	275.7	0.63×
P90 \| Facility Negative (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 21	$2.14	0.5%	994	898.5	1.11×
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 83	$2.11	0.1%	165	226.9	0.73×
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 78	$2.04	0.1%	200	239.5	0.84×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 59	$1.84	0.2%	212	319.9	0.66×
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 65	$1.81	0.1%	226	290.1	0.78×
P250 \| Wingshot (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 47	$1.59	0.2%	284	395.6	0.72×
P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 47	$1.59	0.2%	261	395.6	0.66×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 44	$1.54	0.2%	295	425.2	0.69×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 40	$1.37	0.2%	362	469.8	0.77×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 39	$1.36	0.2%	320	475.2	0.67×
MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 22	$1.31	0.3%	532	871.0	0.61×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/bumblebee, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified$22.34$3,775169.0x14h

M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified$22.34$3,614161.8x1d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified[420]_sweetweed$22.34$1,60171.68x1d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified$22.34$1,60171.68x1d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covertpaquito$22.34$90840.65x1d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rareTUSMUERTOS$22.34$79735.65x8d

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covertp3x$22.34$61727.62x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Turbineweapon · violetrezende2.0$22.34$1.720.08x1m

AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertrezende2.0$22.34$56.682.54x1m

SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedJoseluiis37$22.34$20.700.93x1m

M4A4 | Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violetrezende2.0$22.34$1.420.06x2m

AK-47 | Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$22.34$25.301.13x2m

FAMAS | Bad Trip (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon$22.34$57.652.58x2m

AK-47 | Cartel (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6$22.34$23.271.04x2m

M4A1-S | Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff$22.34$3.470.16x2m

SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$22.34$22.301.00x2m

AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertrezende2.0$22.34$58.062.60x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$22.34	87.50%	115
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$22.34	87.30%	115
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$22.34	87.54%	115
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$22.34	87.64%	115
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$22.34	87.50%	115
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$22.34	87.72%	115
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$22.34	87.74%	115
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$22.34	87.59%	115
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$22.34	87.68%	115
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$22.34	87.57%	115
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$22.34	87.33%	115
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$22.34	87.34%	115
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$22.34	87.47%	115
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$22.34	87.63%	115
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$22.34	87.71%	115
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$22.34	87.21%	115
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$22.34	87.11%	115

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 15.0%contraband 0.0%classified 35.9%restricted 3.4%rare 0.0%red 0.8%uncommon 3.1%Ancient 0.5%pink 5.3%#d32ee6 2.6%Legendary 0.4%#8847ff 4.1%violet 20.2%Mythical 3.8%blue 4.8%best hit $3,775 (169.0x)