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BUTTERFLY

A case on Key-Drop (PREMIUM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price
$742.50
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $649.71 from 97 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.67%
1,022 openings, odds method
Variance
0.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
29.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.4%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
86.07%±8.69169 openings
7 days
85.71%±3.78909 openings
30 days
84.67%±3.571,022 openings
since tracking started
84.67%±3.571,022 openings
76.5%86.0%95.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h16986.07%±8.69−0.4σodds
7d90985.71%±3.78−1.1σodds
30d1,02284.67%±3.57−1.7σodds
All1,02284.67%±3.57−1.7σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values97 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,022 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 21 in 10,000$5,4140.1%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 41 in 5,000$3,8750.1%10.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 11 in 5,000$3,1000.1%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 345$2,7511.2%23.00.67×
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 21 in 345$2,7371.2%13.00.34×
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 31 in 333$2,7021.2%13.10.33×
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 11 in 286$2,2561.2%63.61.68×
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 41 in 270$2,1621.2%43.81.06×
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 31 in 263$2,1181.2%13.90.26×
★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 2,000$1,9210.1%00.5—
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 227$1,8111.2%04.50.00×
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 63$1,6974.2%1916.21.17×
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 357$1,6160.7%12.90.35×
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 169$1,5661.4%46.00.66×
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 156$1,5121.5%26.50.31×
★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 303$1,3700.7%13.40.30×
★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 49$1,3284.1%2020.70.96×
★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 345$1,2270.5%33.01.01×
★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 238$1,1240.7%34.30.70×
★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 263$1,0860.6%23.90.51×
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 192$1,0730.9%55.30.94×
★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 323$1,0640.5%53.21.58×
★ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 154$1,0331.0%46.60.60×
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 161$9870.9%06.30.00×
★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 217$9410.7%24.70.43×
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 132$9361.1%67.80.77×
★ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 127$9331.1%38.10.37×
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · gold1 in 127$9161.1%88.10.99×
★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 182$9060.8%15.60.18×
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold1 in 135$9001.0%57.60.66×
★ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 111$8771.2%89.20.87×
★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 154$8760.9%36.60.45×
★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 227$8730.6%44.50.89×
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 114$8671.2%79.00.78×
★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 167$8670.8%56.10.82×
★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 147$8580.9%76.91.01×
★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · gold1 in 159$8480.8%16.40.16×
★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 182$8260.7%25.60.36×
★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 189$8130.7%25.40.37×
★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 185$8100.7%85.51.45×
★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 192$8060.6%25.30.38×
★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 143$7870.8%87.21.12×
★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 200$7820.6%55.10.98×
★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 164$7590.7%36.20.48×
★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 159$7450.7%16.40.16×
★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 135$7350.8%47.60.53×
★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold1 in 141$7310.8%37.30.41×
★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold1 in 94$7271.2%410.80.37×
★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 115$7201.0%58.90.56×
★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 130$7140.8%47.90.51×
★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · gold1 in 130$7140.8%37.90.38×
★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold1 in 130$7120.8%107.91.27×
★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 104$7111.0%99.80.92×
★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · gold1 in 133$7080.8%97.71.17×
★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 147$7070.7%26.90.29×
★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 109$6961.0%109.41.06×
★ Butterfly Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · gold1 in 59$6891.8%2217.41.27×
★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Well-Worn)knife · gold1 in 119$6780.9%68.60.70×
★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 125$6710.8%108.21.22×
★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · gold1 in 135$6710.8%37.60.40×
★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 123$6640.8%28.30.24×
★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 133$6620.8%87.71.04×
★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 93$6591.1%711.00.63×
★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Well-Worn)knife · gold1 in 106$6591.0%99.60.94×
★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold1 in 128$6500.8%58.00.63×
★ Butterfly Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 53$6461.9%1019.30.52×
★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 101$6361.0%410.10.40×
★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold1 in 101$6361.0%1010.10.99×
★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold1 in 93$6331.0%610.90.55×
★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 118$6220.8%58.70.58×
★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 101$5860.9%210.10.20×
★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 101$5850.9%810.10.79×
★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Well-Worn)knife · gold1 in 100$5820.9%510.20.49×
★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 105$5740.8%59.70.51×
★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold1 in 97$5740.9%510.50.47×
★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · gold1 in 97$5730.9%810.50.76×
★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold1 in 96$5670.9%1110.61.03×
★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 102$5630.8%410.00.40×
★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 102$5620.8%510.00.50×
★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 99$5550.9%710.30.68×
★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 100$5550.9%910.20.88×
★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 99$5520.9%810.30.78×
★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 97$5490.9%910.50.85×
★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 95$5450.9%810.70.75×
★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold1 in 95$5430.9%1510.71.40×
★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 96$5430.9%1010.60.94×
★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold1 in 95$5410.9%610.70.56×
AWP | Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 143$5250.6%57.20.70×
M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 61$4641.2%1616.90.95×
AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20$3963.0%5950.21.18×
AWP | Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 87$3850.7%1311.81.11×
AWP | Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 63$3160.8%1216.10.74×
M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 17$2892.6%6360.61.04×
AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 52$2800.8%1619.60.82×
M4A1-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 26$2731.6%3239.40.81×
AK-47 | The Oligarch (Factory New)weapon · red1 in 16$2652.5%6663.91.03×
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 14$2192.3%7471.21.04×
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/butterfly, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4CSR*$743$3,9915.38x
★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$743$2,7653.72x
★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$743$2,7653.72x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$743$2,7533.71x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$743$2,7023.64x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$743$2,3803.21x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$743$2,3803.21x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$743$2,3643.18x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$743$2,3643.18x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1HEADSHOT V NOGU$743$2,3613.18x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
★ Butterfly Knife | Loreknife · sunny✓$743$7651.03x
★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPATknife · goldaLx 乡$743$5550.75x
★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forestknife · rarePro MMA Fighter$743$5620.76x
★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covertPro MMA Fighter$743$5450.73x
AWP | Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$743$3850.52x
★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert$743$7200.97x
AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covert$743$3960.53x
★ Butterfly Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert$743$6460.87x
★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert$743$7110.96x
AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covertLupix$743$3960.53x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC$74387.50%97
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC$74387.87%97
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC$74387.77%97
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC$74387.65%97
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC$74387.86%97
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC$74387.85%97
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC$74387.69%97
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC$74387.85%97
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC$74387.74%97
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC$74387.88%97
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC$74387.84%97
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC$74387.97%97
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC$74387.89%97
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC$74387.71%97
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC$74387.65%97
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC$74387.80%97
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$74387.83%97
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 60.8%gold 33.0%red 6.3%best hit $3,991 (5.38x)