CACHORRO

A case on Key-Drop (YOUTUBERS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$29.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $25.38 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.47%

1,393 openings, odds method

Variance

13.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

84.59%±47.90227 openings

7 days

79.93%±22.051,224 openings

30 days

79.47%±20.771,393 openings

since tracking started

79.47%±20.771,393 openings

36.0%84.5%133.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	227	84.59%±47.9	−0.1σ	odds
7d	1,224	79.93%±22.0	−0.7σ	odds
30d	1,393	79.47%±20.8	−0.8σ	odds
All	1,393	79.47%±20.8	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,393 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$8,833	2.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary	1 in 7,692	$4,046	2.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 6,667	$3,645	2.2%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,174	$1,119	2.0%	1	0.6	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 1,000	$510	2.0%	1	1.4	0.72×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 971	$495	2.0%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,724	$348	0.8%	0	0.8	—
★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 746	$229	1.2%	3	1.9	1.61×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 625	$153	1.0%	3	2.2	1.35×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 556	$145	1.0%	4	2.5	1.60×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,818	$126	0.3%	1	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 980	$114	0.5%	1	1.4	0.70×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 130	$102	3.1%	2	10.7	0.19×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 126	$101	3.1%	6	11.0	0.54×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 124	$100	3.2%	6	11.2	0.53×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 160	$83.03	2.0%	4	8.7	0.46×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 168	$70.80	1.7%	4	8.3	0.48×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 121	$67.48	2.2%	8	11.5	0.70×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 180	$65.37	1.4%	4	7.7	0.52×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$64.58	2.3%	6	12.5	0.48×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 95	$59.71	2.5%	17	14.7	1.16×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 122	$54.81	1.8%	6	11.4	0.53×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 99	$54.24	2.2%	7	14.1	0.50×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 146	$54.19	1.5%	11	9.5	1.16×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 123	$53.97	1.7%	5	11.4	0.44×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 116	$53.32	1.8%	8	12.0	0.66×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 95	$53.21	2.2%	12	14.6	0.82×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 106	$50.22	1.9%	8	13.1	0.61×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 99	$48.53	1.9%	8	14.0	0.57×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 106	$46.10	1.7%	15	13.1	1.14×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 78	$43.82	2.2%	9	17.8	0.51×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 64	$42.85	2.7%	18	21.9	0.82×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 54	$42.81	3.2%	16	26.0	0.61×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 51	$41.80	3.2%	16	27.3	0.59×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 57	$40.70	2.8%	23	24.3	0.95×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 48	$39.59	3.3%	22	29.0	0.76×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 46	$38.61	3.3%	33	30.5	1.08×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 43	$37.58	3.4%	23	32.2	0.71×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 40	$37.09	3.6%	21	34.7	0.61×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$23.44	7.0%	98	105.0	0.93×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	12.6%	$8.40	4.2%	187	174.9	1.07×
AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	12.9%	$7.93	4.0%	163	180.0	0.91×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	33.5%	$1.18	1.6%	477	466.2	1.02×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/cachorro, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertland1n$29.00$1,11838.57x1d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3Rei$zin$29.00$50917.56x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedace$29.00$8.400.29x15h

M4A1-S | Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet$29.00$1.180.04x15h

Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient$29.00$42.851.48x15h

M4A4 | In Living Color (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$29.00$39.591.37x15h

AWP | Green Energy (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6$29.00$7.930.27x15h

Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$29.00$54.191.87x15h

M4A1-S | Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetRei$zin$29.00$1.180.04x16h

M4A4 | In Living Colorweapon · redRei$zin$29.00$38.561.33x16h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$29.00	87.50%	43
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$29.00	87.69%	43
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$29.00	87.93%	43
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$29.00	87.13%	43
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$29.00	87.36%	43
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$29.00	87.60%	43
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$29.00	87.49%	43
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$29.00	87.97%	43
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$29.00	87.97%	43
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$29.00	87.27%	43
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$29.00	87.37%	43
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$29.00	87.74%	43
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$29.00	87.21%	43
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$29.00	88.01%	43
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$29.00	87.45%	43
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$29.00	87.00%	43
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$29.00	87.99%	43
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$29.00	87.93%	43

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 19.8%legendary 0.0%Ancient 4.4%Covert 0.9%red 8.3%classified 20.1%#d32ce6 12.9%violet 33.5%best hit $1,118 (38.57x)