COBRA

A case on Key-Drop (BESTSELLERS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$78.93

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $69.06 from 84 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.26%

9,439 openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

59.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88.55%±6.381,186 openings

7 days

88.07%±2.537,714 openings

30 days

88.26%±2.299,439 openings

since tracking started

88.26%±2.299,439 openings

81.5%88.5%95.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,186	88.55%±6.38	+0.3σ	odds
7d	7,714	88.07%±2.53	+0.3σ	odds
30d	9,439	88.26%±2.29	+0.6σ	odds
All	9,439	88.26%±2.29	+0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values84 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,456 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 10,000	$2,821	0.4%	1	0.9	—
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 10,000	$1,945	0.3%	0	0.9	—
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,000	$1,685	0.5%	6	1.9	3.17×
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,390	0.2%	0	0.9	—
★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$1,109	0.6%	2	3.8	0.53×
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,007	0.1%	0	0.9	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 1,667	$715	0.6%	8	5.7	1.41×
★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 1,667	$687	0.6%	6	5.7	1.06×
★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,667	$667	0.6%	7	5.7	1.23×
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$609	0.6%	7	6.6	1.06×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$517	0.1%	0	1.9	0.00×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$463	0.2%	2	2.8	0.71×
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,111	$441	0.6%	12	8.5	1.41×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$411	0.2%	4	3.8	1.06×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$405	0.1%	2	0.9	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 909	$365	0.6%	9	10.4	0.87×
★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 769	$314	0.6%	27	12.3	2.20×
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 32	$258	11.7%	268	295.0	0.91×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 123	$214	2.5%	47	76.6	0.61×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 56	$207	5.3%	107	167.4	0.64×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 417	$197	0.7%	22	22.7	0.97×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 263	$190	1.0%	31	35.9	0.86×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 122	$172	2.0%	47	77.5	0.61×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 313	$170	0.8%	24	30.3	0.79×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 227	$164	1.0%	25	41.6	0.60×
★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 135	$154	1.7%	70	70.0	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 256	$154	0.9%	33	36.9	0.89×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 169	$153	1.3%	36	55.8	0.65×
★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 57	$147	3.7%	166	165.5	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 227	$146	0.9%	44	41.6	1.06×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 152	$145	1.4%	51	62.4	0.82×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 222	$144	0.9%	30	42.6	0.71×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 192	$133	1.0%	32	49.2	0.65×
★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 106	$129	1.8%	87	88.9	0.98×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 303	$127	0.6%	37	31.2	1.19×
★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 86	$123	2.1%	78	109.7	0.71×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 161	$122	1.1%	50	58.6	0.85×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 119	$119	1.5%	112	79.4	1.41×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$114	3.3%	109	190.1	0.57×
★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 29	$114	5.6%	234	320.6	0.73×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 110	$89.67	1.2%	84	86.0	0.98×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 12	$89.30	10.5%	821	769.7	1.07×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 26	$83.05	4.6%	229	362.2	0.63×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 68	$83.03	1.8%	80	139.0	0.58×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 43	$81.04	2.7%	134	218.4	0.61×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 110	$72.60	1.0%	52	86.0	0.60×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$71.39	0.8%	56	75.6	0.74×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 167	$65.37	0.6%	33	56.7	0.58×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 61	$64.58	1.5%	113	155.1	0.73×
Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 714	$64.31	0.1%	9	13.2	0.68×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$60.01	2.7%	263	288.4	0.91×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 909	$54.87	0.1%	10	10.4	0.96×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 122	$54.81	0.7%	73	77.5	0.94×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 167	$54.19	0.5%	38	56.7	0.67×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 123	$53.97	0.6%	59	76.6	0.77×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 116	$53.32	0.7%	64	81.3	0.79×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 110	$50.22	0.7%	65	86.0	0.76×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 104	$48.53	0.7%	69	90.8	0.76×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 128	$46.10	0.5%	53	73.8	0.72×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 85	$43.82	0.7%	75	110.6	0.68×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 114	$42.85	0.5%	63	83.2	0.76×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 105	$40.70	0.6%	56	89.8	0.62×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 323	$37.98	0.2%	19	29.3	0.65×
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 333	$33.76	0.1%	15	28.4	0.53×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 217	$27.05	0.2%	24	43.5	0.55×
Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 112	$19.76	0.3%	59	84.2	0.70×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 62	$13.55	0.3%	102	152.2	0.67×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 94	$13.20	0.2%	73	100.2	0.73×
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 74	$13.19	0.3%	98	127.7	0.77×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 55	$12.59	0.3%	140	171.2	0.82×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 54	$12.38	0.3%	125	175.9	0.71×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 52	$12.18	0.3%	139	180.6	0.77×
Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 46	$11.29	0.4%	145	205.2	0.71×
Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 44	$10.99	0.4%	154	214.7	0.72×
Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 43	$10.74	0.4%	155	222.2	0.70×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 49	$10.60	0.3%	142	193.8	0.73×
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 45	$9.67	0.3%	172	209.0	0.82×
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 45	$9.62	0.3%	151	210.9	0.72×
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 39	$8.77	0.3%	179	244.0	0.73×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 28	$7.50	0.4%	249	336.6	0.74×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 28	$7.50	0.4%	248	336.6	0.74×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 34	$7.02	0.3%	215	274.2	0.78×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 33	$6.84	0.3%	204	286.5	0.71×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 30	$6.25	0.3%	253	318.7	0.79×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/cobra, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$78.93$2,87936.47x8d

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restrictedsenseiKeS-_`$78.93$1,70521.60x8d

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$78.93$1,69621.48x5d

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$78.93$1,69121.43x7d

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restrictedEl chapo$78.93$1,68521.35x11h

★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$78.93$1,09713.90x6d

★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$78.93$1,09713.90x7d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$78.93$7759.82x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Asiimovweapon · redDeath13$78.93$53.420.68x7m

★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertDeath13$78.93$89.301.13x7m

Desert Eagle | Printstreamweapon · redDeath13$78.93$54.960.70x7m

AK-47 | Fuel Injectorweapon · redDeath13$78.93$1271.61x7m

AK-47 | The Outsidersweapon · pinkDeath13$78.93$7.850.10x8m

AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedDeath13$78.93$60.010.76x8m

AK-47 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · AncientDeath13$78.93$64.690.82x9m

M4A4 | The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red$78.93$82.911.05x9m

AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$78.93$2202.79x9m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$78.93	87.50%	84
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$78.93	87.68%	84
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$78.93	87.85%	84
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$78.93	87.67%	84
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$78.93	87.60%	84
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$78.93	87.45%	84
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$78.93	87.51%	84
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$78.93	87.67%	84
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$78.93	87.40%	84
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$78.93	87.47%	84
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$78.93	87.59%	84
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$78.93	87.83%	84
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$78.93	87.77%	84
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$78.93	87.80%	84
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$78.93	87.70%	84
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$78.93	87.28%	84
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$78.93	87.57%	84

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.1%restricted 1.7%covert 39.1%classified 17.7%red 5.6%gold 2.7%Ancient 1.5%violet 12.3%rare 3.0%Covert 0.8%pink 9.0%Legendary 1.1%#8847ff 2.6%#d32ce6 3.0%best hit $2,879 (36.47x)