CORAL BLADE
A case on Key-Drop (IMPERIAL CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$58.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $50.75 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.02%
11.4K openings, odds method
Variance
14.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/coral-blade, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl$58.00$3,05052.58x
★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearlroman$58.00$3,05052.58x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $58.00 | 87.50% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $58.00 | 88.63% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $58.00 | 88.94% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $58.00 | 88.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $58.00 | 87.89% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $58.00 | 85.75% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $58.00 | 85.43% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $58.00 | 86.41% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $58.00 | 86.13% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $58.00 | 85.61% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $58.00 | 86.67% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $58.00 | 86.97% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $58.00 | 87.36% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $58.00 | 87.30% | 23 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $58.00 | 87.63% | 23 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $58.00 | 87.33% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $58.00 | 87.02% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.2%legendary 2.5%classified 18.5%violet 34.1%#8847ff 11.9%pink 14.7%Legendary 15.0%best hit $9,437 (162.7x)