CRIMSON RED
A case on Key-Drop (ANIME CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$10.25
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $8.97 from 62 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.04%
5,110 openings, odds method
Variance
4.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
68.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values62 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,110 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/crimson-red, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $10.25 | 87.50% | 62 |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $10.25 | 87.50% | 62 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $10.25 | 87.83% | 62 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $10.25 | 87.53% | 62 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $10.25 | 87.46% | 62 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $10.25 | 87.34% | 62 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $10.25 | 87.57% | 62 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $10.25 | 87.58% | 62 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $10.25 | 87.63% | 62 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $10.25 | 87.64% | 62 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $10.25 | 87.79% | 62 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $10.25 | 87.50% | 62 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $10.25 | 87.42% | 62 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $10.25 | 87.87% | 62 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $10.25 | 87.27% | 62 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $10.25 | 87.59% | 62 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $10.25 | 87.80% | 62 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.25 | 87.48% | 62 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 20.8%covert 0.4%legendary 0.0%Mil Spec Grade 0.1%Restricted 2.0%restricted 13.1%violet 21.6%Legendary 1.3%pink 25.6%Mythical 1.4%blue 13.7%best hit $1,653 (161.2x)