DAPHNE

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$80.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $70.00 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.66%

1,301 openings, odds method

Variance

1.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

53.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

19 openings · below min

7 days

92.97%±7.421,210 openings

30 days

92.66%±7.161,301 openings

since tracking started

92.66%±7.161,301 openings

44.0%104.0%164.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	19	104.11%±59.4	—	odds
7d	1,210	92.97%±7.42	+1.4σ	odds
30d	1,301	92.66%±7.16	+1.4σ	odds
All	1,301	92.66%±7.16	+1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,301 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 1,000	$1,707	2.4%	2	1.3	1.54×
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,000	$1,685	1.2%	1	0.7	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 370	$744	2.9%	5	3.5	1.42×
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 200	$395	2.8%	11	6.5	1.69×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 2,500	$393	0.2%	1	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 313	$273	1.2%	1	4.2	0.24×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 57	$257	6.5%	23	22.9	1.00×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 50	$225	6.5%	17	26.2	0.65×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 50	$225	6.5%	29	26.2	1.11×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 185	$209	1.6%	5	7.0	0.71×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 182	$207	1.6%	5	7.2	0.70×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 179	$190	1.5%	8	7.3	1.10×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 152	$172	1.6%	6	8.6	0.70×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 208	$160	1.1%	10	6.2	1.60×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 42	$157	5.4%	33	31.1	1.06×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 116	$153	1.9%	9	11.2	0.80×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 40	$150	5.4%	31	32.7	0.95×
★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 39	$145	5.4%	24	33.7	0.71×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 104	$145	2.0%	16	12.5	1.28×
★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 35	$132	5.4%	53	37.1	1.43×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	12.3%	$92.75	16.4%	120	160.5	0.75×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	12.4%	$92.38	16.4%	94	161.8	0.58×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$70.80	2.0%	26	25.9	1.00×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 75	$21.51	0.4%	7	17.4	0.40×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 71	$20.91	0.4%	5	18.2	0.27×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 70	$20.70	0.4%	13	18.6	0.70×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 33	$4.51	0.2%	32	38.9	0.82×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified	1 in 29	$4.08	0.2%	35	45.5	0.77×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 19	$3.20	0.2%	39	67.3	0.58×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 103	$2.60	0.0%	11	12.6	0.87×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	11.0%	$0.57	0.1%	102	143.2	0.71×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	11.0%	$0.57	0.1%	117	143.2	0.82×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	12.4%	$0.53	0.1%	127	161.3	0.79×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/daphne, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$80.00$1,70421.30x6d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$80.00$1,66120.76x4d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$80.00$1,65620.70x6d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireCODE PEACEMAKER = 6X KNIFES$80.00$7539.41x4d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphirekOUKi-$80.00$7399.24x1d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$80.00$7399.24x1d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphirekOUKi-$80.00$7229.02x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Royal Guardweapon · violetLupix$80.00$0.610.01x9h

USP-S | Royal Guardweapon · violethwng$80.00$0.610.01x11h

USP-S | Royal Guardweapon · violetNIEPRZEWIDYWALNAELZBIETA$80.00$0.610.01x12h

USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon$80.00$0.570.01x12h

USP-S | Royal Guard (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedNIEPRZEWIDYWALNAELZBIETA$80.00$0.570.01x12h

★ Survival Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · sunnyace$80.00$1321.65x15h

★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$80.00$1571.96x15h

AK-47 | B the Monster (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$80.00$92.751.16x15h

AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert$80.00$1902.38x15h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$80.00	87.50%	33
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$80.00	87.55%	33
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$80.00	87.76%	33
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$80.00	87.58%	33
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$80.00	87.55%	33
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$80.00	87.62%	33
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$80.00	87.31%	33
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$80.00	87.67%	33
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$80.00	87.56%	33
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$80.00	87.46%	33
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$80.00	87.77%	33
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$80.00	87.32%	33
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$80.00	87.27%	33
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$80.00	87.51%	33
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$80.00	87.62%	33
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$80.00	87.54%	33
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$80.00	87.66%	33
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$80.00	87.62%	33

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 29.8%restricted 23.5%#d32ee6 0.5%legendary 0.0%gold 2.0%red 0.7%Ancient 0.5%sunny 2.9%rare 15.4%classified 9.3%Classified 3.5%Mythical 1.0%uncommon 11.0%best hit $1,704 (21.30x)