DISCORD

A case on Key-Drop (COMMUNITY CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$0.00

Advertised RTP

—

Observed RTP, 30d

—

no counted openings

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	—	—	—
7d	—	—	—
30d	—	—	—
All	—	—	—

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Hot / cold
★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100,000	$58.23	1.6%	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$54.15	2.9%	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$53.21	2.9%	—
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$8.40	1.1%	—
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 20,000	$6.65	0.9%	—
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 10,000	$5.59	1.5%	—
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$3.64	0.5%	—
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 5,000	$1.01	0.5%	—
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 2,000	$0.60	0.8%	—
R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 200	$0.50	6.7%	—
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 500	$0.39	2.1%	—
P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 143	$0.20	3.8%	—
Sawed-Off \| Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 33	$0.11	8.9%	—
M249 \| Bock Blocks (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 25	$0.08	8.6%	—
M4A4 \| Choppa (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 13	$0.06	12.1%	—
Galil AR \| Grey Smoke (Field-Tested)weapon · gray	34.0%	$0.02	18.3%	—
M249 \| Sage Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	34.0%	$0.02	18.3%	—
Nova \| Turquoise Pour (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	16.0%	$0.02	8.6%	—

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/discord, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

No history yet

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$0	—	18
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$0	—	18
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$0	—	18
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$0	—	18
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$0	—	18
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0	—	18
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$0	—	18
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$0	—	18
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$0	—	18
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$0	—	18
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$0	—	18
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$0	—	18
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$0	—	18
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$0	—	18
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$0	—	18
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$0	—	18
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$0	—	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.0%covert 0.0%classified 0.0%uncommon 0.0%pink 0.0%Mythical 0.0%violet 0.8%blue 11.2%#4b69ff 4.0%gray 34.0%#b0c3d9 34.0%#5e98d9 16.0%