EDGE

A case on Key-Drop (ANIME CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$37.50

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $32.81 from 57 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.19%

3,063 openings, odds method

Variance

2.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88.04%±15.07343 openings

7 days

90.14%±5.732,410 openings

30 days

89.19%±5.093,063 openings

since tracking started

89.19%±5.093,063 openings

72.5%88.3%104.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	343	88.04%±15.1	+0.1σ	odds
7d	2,410	90.14%±5.73	+0.9σ	odds
30d	3,063	89.19%±5.09	+0.6σ	odds
All	3,063	89.19%±5.09	+0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values57 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,063 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$6,939	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 14,286	$2,003	0.4%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 10,000	$787	0.2%	1	0.3	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 3,333	$651	0.6%	1	0.9	—
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 3,333	$588	0.5%	1	0.9	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$273	0.1%	0	0.3	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Wave Chaser (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 3,333	$216	0.2%	0	0.9	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$209	0.1%	1	0.6	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$207	0.1%	1	0.6	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 1,000	$192	0.6%	4	3.1	1.31×
★ Driver Gloves \| Wave Chaser (Well-Worn)gloves · gold	1 in 3,333	$187	0.2%	0	0.9	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 3,333	$172	0.2%	0	0.9	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Wave Chaser (Battle-Scarred)gloves · gold	1 in 2,000	$161	0.2%	1	1.5	0.65×
Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 769	$152	0.6%	9	4.0	2.26×
AWP \| CMYK (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 2,500	$146	0.2%	2	1.2	1.63×
AWP \| CMYK (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 2,500	$145	0.2%	0	1.2	0.00×
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 204	$139	2.1%	4	15.0	0.27×
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 127	$110	2.6%	22	24.2	0.91×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 39	$100	7.8%	75	78.1	0.96×
AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 94	$94.65	3.1%	18	32.5	0.55×
AWP \| CMYK (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 62	$91.83	4.5%	32	49.6	0.64×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 24	$82.41	10.3%	145	125.3	1.16×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 98	$75.12	2.3%	27	31.2	0.86×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 86	$70.60	2.5%	25	35.5	0.70×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 73	$64.85	2.7%	29	42.0	0.69×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 72	$64.31	2.7%	33	42.6	0.78×
AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 42	$53.10	3.9%	47	72.9	0.64×
AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 41	$52.50	3.9%	43	74.4	0.58×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 39	$49.30	3.9%	58	78.7	0.74×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 39	$49.23	3.9%	62	79.0	0.78×
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 18	$44.77	7.7%	154	173.4	0.89×
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 28	$33.60	3.7%	99	110.9	0.89×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 161	$32.89	0.6%	12	19.0	0.63×
USP-S \| Overgrowth (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 70	$30.29	1.3%	26	43.8	0.59×
AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 95	$26.52	0.8%	16	32.2	0.50×
Glock-18 \| Brass (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	1 in 26	$25.50	3.0%	116	116.4	1.00×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 104	$23.96	0.7%	18	29.4	0.61×
AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 74	$22.06	0.9%	33	41.7	0.79×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 78	$21.41	0.8%	29	39.5	0.73×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 85	$20.75	0.7%	23	35.8	0.64×
USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$20.36	1.5%	59	76.3	0.77×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 82	$20.24	0.8%	21	37.4	0.56×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 69	$19.78	0.9%	26	44.1	0.59×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 69	$19.71	0.9%	29	44.4	0.65×
AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 61	$19.34	1.0%	33	49.9	0.66×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 90	$17.64	0.6%	23	34.0	0.68×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 60	$14.59	0.7%	34	51.2	0.66×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 55	$13.39	0.7%	38	55.7	0.68×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 20	$13.38	2.0%	140	150.7	0.93×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 56	$12.66	0.7%	34	54.2	0.63×
Galil AR \| Vandal (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 20	$12.10	1.9%	179	156.8	1.14×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 48	$11.17	0.7%	33	64.3	0.51×
Sticker \| Lucassticker · pink	1 in 17	$7.97	1.5%	186	185.3	1.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 25	$7.89	0.9%	80	121.0	0.66×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 26	$7.85	0.9%	71	117.6	0.60×
FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 16	$7.44	1.4%	211	190.5	1.11×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 16	$6.98	1.3%	170	188.7	0.90×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/edge, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare$37.50$78620.95x2d

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$37.50$63216.86x4d

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$37.50$60316.09x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertZevkLast`iN$37.50$1002.68x13m

StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Skull (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violetTiti Aranda$37.50$13.380.36x2h

AWP | Printstreamweapon · redTiti Aranda$37.50$52.801.41x2h

Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New)weapon · blueTiti Aranda$37.50$12.100.32x2h

M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertTiti Aranda$37.50$1002.68x2h

Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New)weapon · blueTiti Aranda$37.50$12.100.32x2h

Sticker | Lucassticker · pinkTiti Aranda$37.50$7.970.21x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$37.50	87.50%	57
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$37.50	87.35%	57
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$37.50	87.43%	57
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$37.50	87.56%	57
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$37.50	87.69%	57
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$37.50	87.50%	57
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$37.50	87.47%	57
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$37.50	87.44%	57
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$37.50	87.28%	57
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$37.50	87.48%	57
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$37.50	87.42%	57
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$37.50	87.40%	57
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$37.50	87.57%	57
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$37.50	87.32%	57
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$37.50	87.75%	57
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$37.50	87.51%	57
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$37.50	87.60%	57

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 14.1%rare 2.6%legendary 0.0%epic 0.0%gold 0.1%red 11.7%restricted 9.6%industrial 3.6%Classified 6.6%pink 18.0%Restricted 3.8%classified 4.6%uncommon 7.4%Legendary 1.7%violet 4.9%blue 11.3%best hit $786 (20.95x)