EXPLOSION

A case on Key-Drop (BATTLE CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$13.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $11.38 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.66%

9,035 openings, odds method

Variance

5.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

84.57%±13.061,280 openings

7 days

83.38%±5.467,357 openings

30 days

83.66%±4.959,035 openings

since tracking started

83.66%±4.959,035 openings

71.0%84.7%98.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,280	84.57%±13.1	−0.4σ	odds
7d	7,357	83.38%±5.46	−1.5σ	odds
30d	9,035	83.66%±4.95	−1.5σ	odds
All	9,035	83.66%±4.95	−1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,035 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 33,333	$1,930	0.5%	0	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 14,286	$1,685	1.0%	1	0.6	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$573	2.5%	6	4.5	1.33×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 2,000	$550	2.4%	2	4.5	0.44×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$273	0.5%	0	1.8	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 909	$226	2.2%	7	9.9	0.70×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$209	0.6%	1	2.7	0.37×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$207	0.5%	1	2.7	0.37×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 2,000	$172	0.8%	2	4.5	0.44×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$135	0.7%	1	5.4	0.18×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$129	0.8%	4	6.3	0.63×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$125	0.8%	4	6.3	0.63×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 333	$84.18	2.2%	35	27.1	1.29×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 833	$70.60	0.7%	4	10.8	0.37×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 909	$66.44	0.6%	8	9.9	0.80×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 714	$64.85	0.8%	7	12.6	0.55×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 250	$64.58	2.3%	41	36.1	1.13×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 714	$64.31	0.8%	8	12.6	0.63×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 625	$56.31	0.8%	6	14.5	0.42×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 213	$54.24	2.2%	37	42.5	0.87×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 213	$54.15	2.2%	28	42.5	0.66×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 588	$53.65	0.8%	14	15.4	0.91×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 556	$43.45	0.7%	10	16.3	0.61×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 47	$38.98	7.2%	127	190.6	0.67×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 42	$36.63	7.7%	159	215.9	0.74×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 31	$35.65	10.2%	194	292.7	0.66×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 25	$32.16	11.3%	168	359.6	0.47×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	10.4%	$23.44	21.4%	939	936.9	1.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 45	$7.55	1.5%	156	199.7	0.78×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 18	$4.82	2.4%	406	515.9	0.79×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 14	$4.17	2.6%	492	650.5	0.76×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$4.11	2.7%	504	665.0	0.76×
SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Factory New)weapon · gray	52.2%	$1.22	5.6%	4,646	4718.1	0.98×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/explosion, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$13.00$1,696130.4x5d

★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary$13.00$62247.81x4d

★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary$13.00$60046.14x3d

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covertKlácsku$13.00$59846.00x7d

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert$13.00$59846.00x7d

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert$13.00$59745.90x2d

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covertMorci$13.00$58745.18x1d

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert$13.00$57344.07x3h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Temukauweapon · covertmɅck$13.00$33.732.59x1m

SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New)weapon · graymɅck$13.00$1.220.09x1m

SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New)weapon · gray$13.00$1.180.09x2m

M4A4 | Temukau (Well-Worn)weapon · redmɅck$13.00$35.802.75x2m

SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New)weapon · gray$13.00$1.180.09x2m

SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New)weapon · graymɅck$13.00$1.180.09x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$13.00	87.50%	33
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$13.00	87.43%	33
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$13.00	87.61%	33
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$13.00	87.05%	33
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$13.00	88.33%	33
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$13.00	87.14%	33
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$13.00	87.37%	33
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$13.00	87.23%	33
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$13.00	87.55%	33
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$13.00	86.94%	33
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$13.00	87.75%	33
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$13.00	87.57%	33
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$13.00	87.44%	33
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$13.00	87.41%	33
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$13.00	87.24%	33
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$13.00	87.19%	33
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$13.00	87.18%	33

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedgold 0.0%restricted 0.0%covert 10.8%legendary 0.1%red 4.0%classified 23.4%pink 9.4%gray 52.2%best hit $1,696 (130.4x)