FEEL THE DRAGON

A case on Key-Drop (IMPERIAL CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$280.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $245.00 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.68%

9,256 openings, odds method

Variance

9.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 30

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

92.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

99.12%±15.121,598 openings

7 days

90.35%±7.287,879 openings

30 days

87.68%±6.689,256 openings

since tracking started

87.68%±6.689,256 openings

80.5%97.8%115.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,598	99.12%±15.1	+1.5σ	odds
7d	7,879	90.35%±7.28	+0.7σ	odds
30d	9,256	87.68%±6.68	−0.1σ	odds
All	9,256	87.68%±6.68	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,256 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$14.6K	0.6%	1	0.9	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary	1 in 5,000	$12K	1.0%	1	1.9	0.54×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 556	$9,362	6.9%	22	16.7	1.32×
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$8,833	1.4%	3	3.7	0.81×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 500	$8,426	6.9%	22	18.5	1.19×
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$7,950	1.6%	0	4.6	0.00×
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$6,311	2.1%	2	7.4	0.27×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 323	$5,414	6.8%	29	28.7	1.01×
M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 227	$3,775	6.8%	35	40.7	0.86×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 172	$2,867	6.8%	50	53.7	0.93×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 169	$2,821	6.8%	40	54.6	0.73×
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 122	$2,042	6.8%	52	75.9	0.69×
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 101	$1,685	6.8%	79	91.6	0.86×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 79	$1,328	6.8%	100	116.6	0.86×
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 55	$921	6.8%	99	167.5	0.59×
AWP \| Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classified	11.6%	$159	7.5%	1,233	1070.9	1.15×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	11.3%	$145	6.7%	1,179	1046.9	1.13×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	14.0%	$70.80	4.1%	1,339	1297.7	1.03×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red	15.1%	$54.95	3.4%	1,458	1399.5	1.04×
M4A4 \| Falak (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	18.5%	$28.18	2.1%	1,668	1710.5	0.98×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	22.1%	$14.20	1.3%	1,823	2047.4	0.89×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/feel-the-dragon, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covertLUCKY CODE = JUEG$280$14.6K52.30x3d

AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendaryPro MMA Fighter$280$12K42.84x1d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyGyokeres23$280$9,65934.50x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyTANQUESILVAツ$280$9,65334.48x5d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$280$9,65334.48x5d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubySharaN$280$9,65334.47x4d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Rubyknash$280$9,65334.47x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedPro MMA Fighter$280$14.200.05x27m

M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · redPro MMA Fighter$280$54.950.20x27m

AWP | Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classifiedPro MMA Fighter$280$1590.57x27m

AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$280$8,79231.40x28m

P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$280$14.320.05x28m

M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red$280$56.560.20x28m

M4A4 | Falak (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6$280$29.160.10x28m

P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$280$14.320.05x28m

P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedPro MMA Fighter$280$14.320.05x28m

M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · redPro MMA Fighter$280$56.560.20x28m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$280	87.50%	21
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$280	88.03%	21
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$280	88.07%	21
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$280	87.49%	21
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$280	88.01%	21
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$280	88.21%	21
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$280	87.98%	21
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$280	87.95%	21
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$280	87.99%	21
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$280	87.76%	21
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$280	87.58%	21
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$280	87.66%	21
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$280	88.12%	21
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$280	88.27%	21
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$280	88.40%	21
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$280	87.36%	21
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$280	87.92%	21

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 30.7%legendary 0.6%classified 34.1%restricted 1.0%red 15.1%#d32ce6 18.5%best hit $14.6K (52.30x)