FIRE

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$101.11

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $88.47 from 51 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.44%

1,115 openings, odds method

Variance

2.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

60.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

26 openings · below min

7 days

81.81%±10.01875 openings

30 days

81.44%±8.891,115 openings

since tracking started

81.44%±8.891,115 openings

14.5%70.5%126.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	26	70.69%±55.4	—	odds
7d	875	81.81%±10.0	−1.1σ	odds
30d	1,115	81.44%±8.89	−1.3σ	odds
All	1,115	81.44%±8.89	−1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values51 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,115 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$10.2K	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,124	$2,232	2.2%	0	1.0	—
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 847	$1,685	2.2%	1	1.3	0.76×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 4,348	$1,425	0.4%	0	0.3	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 412	$813	2.2%	3	2.7	1.11×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,351	$794	0.7%	1	0.8	—
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 397	$783	2.2%	1	2.8	0.36×
★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 348	$687	2.2%	5	3.2	1.56×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 398	$428	1.2%	1	2.8	0.36×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 90	$327	4.1%	7	12.4	0.56×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 86	$312	4.1%	7	13.0	0.54×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 380	$278	0.8%	1	2.9	0.34×
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 72	$263	4.1%	8	15.4	0.52×
★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 31	$192	7.0%	31	35.9	0.86×
★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 29	$179	7.0%	37	38.5	0.96×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 28	$173	7.0%	55	40.0	1.38×
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 310	$156	0.6%	1	3.6	0.28×
★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25	$156	7.0%	25	44.4	0.56×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 69	$154	2.5%	10	16.1	0.62×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 52	$127	2.8%	16	21.6	0.74×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 45	$127	3.1%	12	24.5	0.49×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 55	$126	2.6%	20	20.1	0.99×
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 35	$107	3.5%	34	32.1	1.06×
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 31	$102	3.7%	24	35.7	0.67×
★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 16	$101	7.2%	92	69.6	1.32×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 151	$83.03	0.6%	7	7.4	0.95×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$82.85	0.8%	8	9.0	0.89×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 37	$81.04	2.5%	23	30.2	0.76×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$70.80	2.4%	28	33.9	0.83×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 121	$66.50	0.6%	6	9.2	0.65×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 74	$58.32	0.9%	7	15.1	0.46×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 79	$54.81	0.8%	13	14.0	0.93×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$54.51	0.9%	13	16.8	0.78×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 66	$54.15	0.9%	14	16.9	0.83×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 76	$53.32	0.8%	12	14.6	0.82×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 57	$43.82	0.9%	7	19.6	0.36×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 63	$42.81	0.8%	9	17.8	0.51×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 60	$41.80	0.8%	16	18.5	0.87×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 148	$38.16	0.3%	5	7.5	0.66×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 51	$37.09	0.8%	12	22.1	0.54×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 140	$27.05	0.2%	5	7.9	0.63×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 129	$23.33	0.2%	3	8.7	0.35×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 47	$17.64	0.4%	22	23.9	0.92×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 28	$12.66	0.5%	19	39.3	0.48×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 24	$11.17	0.5%	37	47.4	0.78×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 40	$10.77	0.3%	23	27.6	0.83×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 34	$10.60	0.3%	24	32.4	0.74×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 20	$7.50	0.4%	40	54.4	0.73×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$7.50	0.4%	40	54.4	0.73×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 20	$6.76	0.4%	38	55.6	0.68×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 16	$5.81	0.4%	53	69.9	0.76×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/fire, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restrictedfer_otake$101$1,70416.85x6d

★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · gold9K GW Code: BARU$101$8418.31x7d

★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · gold$101$8338.24x2d

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$101$8017.92x2d

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert$101$7917.82x3d

★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · RubyCODE: ELTUCUCS$101$6896.82x7d

★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$101$6886.81x1d

★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$101$6876.80x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Royal Paladinweapon · redFinn12$101$1041.03x6h

AK-47 | Neon Riderweapon · redEuzasrien$101$59.800.59x13h

USP-S | Kill Confirmedweapon · redLimon$101$1091.08x17h

AK-47 | Nouveau Rougeweapon · pinkLimon$101$8.090.08x17h

AK-47 | Nouveau Rougeweapon · pink???????????????????????????? シ$101$8.090.08x17h

AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink???????????????????????????? シ$101$5.810.06x17h

AK-47 | Inheritance (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$101$41.800.41x17h

★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare$101$1921.90x17h

AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink$101$5.810.06x17h

AWP | Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$101$53.320.53x17h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$101	87.50%	51
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$101	87.21%	51
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$101	87.37%	51
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$101	87.73%	51
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$101	87.46%	51
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$101	87.51%	51
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$101	87.70%	51
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$101	87.52%	51
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$101	87.64%	51
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$101	87.21%	51
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$101	87.30%	51
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$101	87.25%	51
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$101	87.57%	51
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$101	87.70%	51
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$101	87.27%	51
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$101	87.46%	51
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$101	87.21%	51
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$101	87.27%	51

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 52.9%restricted 0.1%extraordinary 0.3%gold 0.2%legendary 0.3%rare 5.4%red 4.4%Legendary 1.5%pink 19.3%uncommon 3.5%Classified 4.3%classified 7.8%best hit $1,704 (16.85x)