FREYA

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$20.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $17.50 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.14%

2,587 openings, odds method

Variance

4.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 14

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

95.08%±25.02297 openings

7 days

86.71%±9.292,235 openings

30 days

85.14%±8.662,587 openings

since tracking started

85.14%±8.662,587 openings

69.5%95.2%121.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	297	95.08%±25.0	+0.6σ	odds
7d	2,235	86.71%±9.29	−0.2σ	odds
30d	2,587	85.14%±8.66	−0.6σ	odds
All	2,587	85.14%±8.66	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,587 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 10,000	$2,118	1.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 319	$339	6.1%	13	8.1	1.61×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 265	$280	6.1%	13	9.8	1.33×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 163	$172	6.1%	9	15.9	0.57×
★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 137	$145	6.0%	19	18.9	1.01×
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 131	$139	6.0%	17	19.7	0.86×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 87	$92.38	6.0%	16	29.6	0.54×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 176	$89.33	2.9%	8	14.7	0.54×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 150	$82.41	3.1%	10	17.3	0.58×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 139	$72.60	3.0%	12	18.7	0.64×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 134	$71.39	3.0%	14	19.3	0.72×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 243	$70.80	1.7%	4	10.6	0.38×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 140	$70.60	2.9%	11	18.5	0.60×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 116	$64.31	3.2%	16	22.3	0.72×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 57	$59.97	6.0%	46	45.6	1.01×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 105	$54.81	3.0%	12	24.6	0.49×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 143	$54.24	2.2%	12	18.1	0.66×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 244	$54.19	1.3%	6	10.6	0.57×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 163	$53.97	1.9%	11	15.9	0.69×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$53.32	3.1%	14	26.0	0.54×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 137	$53.21	2.2%	10	18.8	0.53×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 141	$50.22	2.0%	13	18.4	0.71×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 131	$48.53	2.1%	7	19.7	0.36×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 177	$46.10	1.5%	8	14.6	0.55×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 153	$42.85	1.6%	8	16.9	0.47×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 138	$40.70	1.7%	11	18.8	0.59×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 85	$35.74	2.4%	21	30.3	0.69×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 37	$23.44	3.6%	47	70.4	0.67×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$4.15	1.7%	109	182.8	0.60×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 13	$3.97	1.8%	119	200.4	0.59×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 13	$3.96	1.8%	126	201.2	0.63×
Sticker \| One Stingsticker · #4b69ff	55.3%	$0.92	2.9%	1,471	1430.2	1.03×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/freya, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | One Stingsticker · #4b69ffrezende2.0$20.00$0.920.05x4m

Sticker | One Stingsticker · #4b69ffrezende2.0$20.00$0.920.05x5m

Sticker | One Stingsticker · #4b69ff$20.00$0.920.05x5m

USP-S | Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink$20.00$3.960.20x5m

Sticker | One Stingsticker · #4b69ff$20.00$0.920.05x5m

Sticker | One Stingsticker · #4b69ffrezende2.0$20.00$0.920.05x5m

Sticker | One Stingsticker · #4b69ff$20.00$0.920.05x5m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$20.00	87.50%	32
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$20.00	87.58%	32
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$20.00	87.55%	32
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$20.00	87.46%	32
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$20.00	87.68%	32
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$20.00	87.33%	32
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$20.00	87.71%	32
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$20.00	87.36%	32
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$20.00	87.86%	32
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$20.00	87.60%	32
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$20.00	87.67%	32
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$20.00	87.79%	32
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$20.00	87.91%	32
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$20.00	87.23%	32
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$20.00	87.19%	32
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$20.00	87.25%	32
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$20.00	87.40%	32
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$20.00	87.30%	32

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 14.2%extraordinary 0.3%red 1.3%rare 1.1%Covert 0.6%Ancient 0.7%classified 11.0%pink 15.5%#4b69ff 55.3%best hit —