GRADIENT

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$3.10

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $2.71 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.25%

5,684 openings, odds method

Variance

11.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

99.07%±27.72561 openings

7 days

85.10%±9.664,795 openings

30 days

86.25%±8.885,684 openings

since tracking started

86.25%±8.885,684 openings

70.5%99.0%127.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	561	99.07%±27.7	+0.8σ	odds
7d	4,795	85.10%±9.66	−0.5σ	odds
30d	5,684	86.25%±8.88	−0.3σ	odds
All	5,684	86.25%±8.88	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,692 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,316	$263	7.4%	3	4.3	0.69×
M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 10,000	$219	0.8%	0	0.6	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 625	$123	7.3%	15	9.1	1.65×
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 556	$110	7.3%	8	10.2	0.78×
MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$19.60	7.3%	54	57.1	0.94×
MP7 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 175	$13.33	2.8%	25	32.5	0.77×
MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$8.39	25.7%	340	472.1	0.72×
P2000 \| Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	14.5%	$2.01	10.7%	840	824.4	1.02×
AUG \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	15.3%	$1.76	9.9%	813	872.6	0.93×
R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	16.4%	$1.48	9.0%	1,045	935.3	1.12×
XM1014 \| Halftone Shift (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	20.7%	$0.83	6.3%	1,135	1178.7	0.96×
Sticker \| Rainbow Routesticker · violet	22.8%	$0.66	5.5%	1,285	1294.9	0.99×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/gradient, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$3.10$24779.65x8d

★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertFan4Haze$3.10$24278.09x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

XM1014 | Halftone Shift (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueÇORAPHIRSIZI | Bloodycase.com$3.10$0.830.27x58s

R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$3.10$1.480.48x1m

XM1014 | Halftone Shift (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueÇORAPHIRSIZI | Bloodycase.com$3.10$0.830.27x1m

R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedBong$3.10$1.480.48x7m

Sticker | Rainbow Routesticker · violetBong$3.10$0.660.21x7m

R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedBong$3.10$1.480.48x7m

Sticker | Rainbow Routesticker · violetBong$3.10$0.660.21x7m

P2000 | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · restrictedBong$3.10$2.010.65x7m

R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedBong$3.10$1.480.48x7m

XM1014 | Halftone Shift (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueBong$3.10$0.830.27x7m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:48 UTC	$3.10	87.50%	12
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$3.10	87.50%	12
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$3.10	87.07%	12
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$3.10	87.13%	12
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$3.10	87.98%	12
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$3.10	87.83%	12
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$3.10	88.12%	12
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$3.10	88.11%	12
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$3.10	88.00%	12
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$3.10	87.89%	12
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$3.10	87.10%	12
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$3.10	87.65%	12
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$3.10	87.25%	12
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$3.10	87.25%	12
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$3.10	88.14%	12
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$3.10	87.80%	12
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$3.10	86.96%	12
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$3.10	87.89%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.4%epic 0.0%mil spec 1.0%restricted 23.3%#4b69ff 15.3%classified 16.4%blue 20.7%violet 22.8%best hit $247 (79.65x)