JOCASTA

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$0.60

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $0.52 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d

70.38%

14.6K openings, odds method

Variance

20.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

82.90%±24.141,490 openings

7 days

69.39%±12.4411.4K openings

30 days

70.38%±11.3614.6K openings

since tracking started

70.38%±11.3614.6K openings

56.5%82.0%107.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.47% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (59.02% – 81.74%, 14,591 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,490	82.90%±24.1	−0.4σ	odds
7d	11.4K	69.39%±12.4	−2.9σ	odds
30d	14.6K	70.38%±11.4	−2.9σ	odds
All	14.6K	70.38%±11.4	−2.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 10,000	$158	3.0%	1	1.5	0.68×
★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 8,333	$132	3.0%	3	1.8	1.71×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,571	$54.24	2.9%	7	4.1	1.71×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,571	$54.15	2.9%	1	4.1	0.24×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,857	$43.82	2.9%	7	5.1	1.37×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 3,704	$9.23	0.5%	3	3.9	0.76×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 1,515	$5.80	0.7%	0	9.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,250	$5.29	0.8%	3	11.7	0.26×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,136	$5.04	0.8%	2	12.9	0.16×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 4,348	$4.80	0.2%	0	3.4	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,786	$3.02	0.3%	1	8.2	0.12×
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 356	$2.58	1.4%	10	41.1	0.24×
AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 329	$2.48	1.4%	4	44.4	0.09×
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 40	$1.65	7.9%	530	367.0	1.44×
P2000 \| Acid Etched (Minimal Wear)weapon · 3	1 in 37	$1.54	7.9%	297	393.2	0.76×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 111	$1.37	2.4%	66	132.1	0.50×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 137	$1.36	1.9%	52	106.5	0.49×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 109	$1.36	2.4%	48	134.1	0.36×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 104	$1.30	2.4%	64	140.7	0.45×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 109	$1.21	2.1%	57	134.4	0.42×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 105	$1.19	2.2%	56	139.0	0.40×
SG 553 \| Phantom (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 29	$1.16	7.5%	293	498.8	0.59×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 78	$1.15	2.8%	71	187.5	0.38×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 90	$1.01	2.1%	48	161.9	0.30×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 50	$0.80	3.0%	117	291.2	0.40×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 49	$0.79	3.1%	137	298.5	0.46×
XM1014 \| Solitude (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 15	$0.65	8.5%	668	1004.7	0.66×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 20	$0.60	5.8%	529	744.6	0.71×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$0.57	7.5%	222	1009.2	0.22×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 14	$0.57	7.5%	274	1015.0	0.27×
SSG 08 \| Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray	52.7%	$0.02	2.0%	9,582	7701.0	1.24×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/jocasta, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$0.60$157261.1x8d

★ Survival Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · sunnyTiwi-San$0.60$133221.5x1d

★ Survival Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · sunny$0.60$132220.1x19h

AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$0.60$57.2495.40x8d

AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$0.60$53.3288.87x6d

AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covertCعиﺡяλL/$0.60$53.0688.43x6d

AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$0.60$53.0588.42x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear)weapon · graykinguare$0.60$0.020.03x3m

SG 553 | Phantom (Field-Tested)weapon · violetkinguare$0.60$1.161.93x4m

SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear)weapon · graykinguare$0.60$0.020.03x4m

M4A1-S | Night Terrorweapon · violetPièrre Sanchèz$0.60$0.841.40x6m

SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear)weapon · graykinguare$0.60$0.020.03x7m

SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear)weapon · graykinguare$0.60$0.020.03x8m

USP-S | Royal Guardweapon · violetkinguare$0.60$0.570.95x8m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$0.60	87.50%	31
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$0.60	87.43%	31
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$0.60	86.39%	31
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$0.60	87.44%	31
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$0.60	86.56%	31
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.60	87.69%	31
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$0.60	88.75%	31
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$0.60	86.69%	31
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$0.60	87.45%	31
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$0.60	89.05%	31
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$0.60	89.09%	31
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$0.60	87.94%	31
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$0.60	87.19%	31
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$0.60	86.97%	31
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$0.60	86.94%	31
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$0.60	86.86%	31
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$0.60	87.06%	31

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 2.7%covert 0.1%sunny 0.0%Legendary 0.1%Classified 0.1%#d32ee6 0.1%violet 14.9%Mythical 1.2%#8847ff 9.8%restricted 11.5%uncommon 6.9%gray 52.7%best hit $157 (261.1x)