LORE

A case on Key-Drop (PREMIUM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$394.64

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $345.30 from 54 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.75%

3,050 openings, odds method

Variance

0.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

32.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.82%±3.731,140 openings

7 days

88.35%±2.342,766 openings

30 days

87.75%±2.233,050 openings

since tracking started

87.75%±2.233,050 openings

82.5%87.0%91.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,140	86.82%±3.73	−0.6σ	odds
7d	2,766	88.35%±2.34	+0.4σ	odds
30d	3,050	87.75%±2.23	−0.2σ	odds
All	3,050	87.75%±2.23	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values54 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,050 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$8,833	0.3%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$5,557	0.2%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$2,767	0.1%	2	0.3	—
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$2,232	0.1%	0	0.3	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$1,697	0.1%	1	0.6	—
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,000	$1,685	0.1%	0	0.6	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$1,614	0.0%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 476	$1,238	0.8%	4	6.4	0.62×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 455	$1,124	0.7%	6	6.7	0.89×
★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 75	$1,040	4.0%	34	40.9	0.83×
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 119	$1,014	2.5%	24	25.6	0.94×
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 313	$1,001	0.9%	6	9.8	0.61×
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 435	$921	0.6%	1	7.0	0.14×
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 476	$909	0.6%	6	6.4	0.94×
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 455	$893	0.6%	3	6.7	0.45×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 102	$855	2.4%	26	29.9	0.87×
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 417	$839	0.6%	6	7.3	0.82×
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 385	$819	0.6%	8	7.9	1.01×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 556	$814	0.4%	2	5.5	0.36×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 96	$806	2.4%	42	31.7	1.32×
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · rare	1 in 370	$797	0.6%	5	8.2	0.61×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 370	$787	0.6%	4	8.2	0.49×
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 357	$786	0.6%	5	8.5	0.59×
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 345	$776	0.7%	6	8.8	0.68×
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 333	$753	0.7%	4	9.2	0.44×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 303	$711	0.7%	6	10.1	0.60×
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 256	$706	0.8%	11	11.9	0.92×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 263	$659	0.7%	8	11.6	0.69×
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 78	$653	2.4%	45	39.0	1.15×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 294	$602	0.6%	10	10.4	0.96×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 118	$573	1.4%	7	25.9	0.27×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 28	$542	5.6%	98	108.9	0.90×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 101	$532	1.5%	19	30.2	0.63×
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 213	$523	0.7%	11	14.3	0.77×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 26	$513	5.6%	111	115.3	0.96×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 82	$478	1.7%	27	37.2	0.73×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 60	$411	2.0%	33	51.2	0.64×
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 41	$392	2.8%	43	74.1	0.58×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 14	$365	7.6%	132	219.3	0.60×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 12	$360	8.4%	65	245.2	0.27×
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 26	$333	3.8%	61	119.6	0.51×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 24	$312	3.8%	387	128.4	3.01×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 41	$287	2.0%	69	75.0	0.92×
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 85	$264	0.9%	33	35.7	0.92×
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 85	$263	0.9%	34	36.0	0.94×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 21	$253	3.5%	145	145.5	1.00×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 37	$193	1.5%	63	83.0	0.76×
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 18	$193	3.1%	187	171.1	1.09×
★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 18	$192	3.1%	169	171.7	0.98×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$182	1.6%	89	91.5	0.97×
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 17	$180	3.0%	192	178.4	1.08×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 17	$172	3.0%	185	183.3	1.01×
★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 17	$172	3.0%	194	183.0	1.06×
★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 15	$157	3.1%	194	205.6	0.94×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/lore, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$395$5,55714.08x1d

AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covertEl chapo$395$2,8167.14x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$395$1,7534.44x5d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$395$1,2933.28x5d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$395$1,2693.21x5d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertPro MMA Fighter$395$1,2453.15x1d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$395$1,2383.14x21h

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$395$1,1863.01x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covertゼロツー$395$2530.64x1h

★ Bayonet | Loreknife · sunnyゼロツー$395$3400.86x1h

AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covertゼロツー$395$2550.65x1h

★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$395$3430.87x1h

★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Field-Tested)gloves · epic$395$2040.52x1h

AUG | Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$395$5911.50x1h

★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Field-Tested)gloves · epic$395$2040.52x1h

★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$395$8022.03x1h

★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic$395$1,0452.65x1h

★ Bayonet | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert$395$2850.72x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$395	87.50%	54
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$395	87.94%	54
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$395	87.68%	54
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$395	87.73%	54
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$395	87.80%	54
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$395	87.85%	54
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$395	87.89%	54
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$395	87.97%	54
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$395	87.94%	54
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$395	88.03%	54
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$395	87.83%	54
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$395	88.02%	54
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$395	87.94%	54
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$395	87.90%	54
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$395	87.78%	54
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$395	87.94%	54
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$395	87.98%	54

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 55.5%restricted 0.0%extraordinary 20.0%epic 11.3%gold 6.1%rare 5.9%classified 1.3%best hit $5,557 (14.08x)