LOTUS
A case on Key-Drop (RISK ZONE), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$99.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $86.62 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.76%
2,048 openings, odds method
Variance
9.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 23
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,048 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $5,557 | 12.8% | 6 | 4.1 | 1.46× |
| ★ Karambit | Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 56 | $1,018 | 21.2% | 24 | 36.9 | 0.65× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 44 | $787 | 20.5% | 44 | 46.3 | 0.95× |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare | 1 in 11 | $192 | 20.8% | 198 | 192.3 | 1.03× |
| ★ Paracord Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold | 15.3% | $118 | 20.8% | 293 | 313.3 | 0.94× |
| M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 71.0% | $4.68 | 3.8% | 1,483 | 1455.1 | 1.02× |
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/lotus, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $99.00 | 87.50% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $99.00 | 87.43% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $99.00 | 87.35% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $99.00 | 87.57% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $99.00 | 87.39% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $99.00 | 87.30% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $99.00 | 87.38% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $99.00 | 87.77% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $99.00 | 87.75% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $99.00 | 87.71% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $99.00 | 87.26% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $99.00 | 87.46% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $99.00 | 87.74% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $99.00 | 87.43% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $99.00 | 87.34% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $99.00 | 87.38% | 6 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $99.00 | 87.50% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 4.3%rare 9.4%gold 15.3%Legendary 71.0%best hit $5,931 (59.91x)