LUCKY SPELL
A case on Key-Drop (EVENT CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$5.00
Advertised RTP
87.95%
EV $4.40 from 32 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.60%
163K openings, odds method
Variance
2.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
26.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.80% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (83.80% – 85.39%, 162,969 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 163K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/lucky-spell, 9 Nov, 08:09 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $5.00 | 87.95% | 32 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $5.00 | 87.96% | 32 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $5.00 | 87.98% | 32 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $5.00 | 88.18% | 32 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $5.00 | 87.98% | 32 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $5.00 | 87.87% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $5.00 | 87.88% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $5.00 | 87.73% | 32 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $5.00 | 87.84% | 32 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $5.00 | 88.00% | 32 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $5.00 | 87.41% | 32 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $5.00 | 87.42% | 32 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.00 | 87.61% | 32 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%restricted 0.0%gold 0.0%classified 0.1%red 0.0%pink 0.1%violet 31.1%blue 25.1%gray 27.4%blueLight 3.8%light blue 4.0%mil spec 8.4%best hit $1,057 (211.3x)