MACHINE

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$54.25

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $47.47 from 69 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.67%

3,482 openings, odds method

Variance

1.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

62.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

84.88%±11.44535 openings

7 days

85.39%±4.853,068 openings

30 days

86.67%±4.583,482 openings

since tracking started

86.67%±4.583,482 openings

73.0%85.0%97.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	535	84.88%±11.4	−0.5σ	odds
7d	3,068	85.39%±4.85	−0.9σ	odds
30d	3,482	86.67%±4.58	−0.5σ	odds
All	3,482	86.67%±4.58	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values69 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,482 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$2,142	0.9%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$1,888	1.2%	0	1.0	0.00×
★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$1,109	0.9%	3	1.4	2.15×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,667	$806	1.0%	4	2.1	1.91×
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 1,667	$787	1.0%	2	2.1	0.96×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 769	$360	1.0%	5	4.5	1.10×
M4A4 \| The Coalition (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 714	$318	0.9%	3	4.9	0.62×
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$303	0.4%	2	2.4	0.82×
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 909	$239	0.6%	4	3.8	1.04×
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested)gloves · rare	1 in 1,667	$218	0.3%	2	2.1	0.96×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 333	$197	1.2%	3	10.4	0.29×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 244	$170	1.5%	10	14.3	0.70×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 52	$170	6.9%	59	67.2	0.88×
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 143	$168	2.5%	21	24.4	0.86×
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 133	$162	2.6%	18	26.1	0.69×
Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$152	3.2%	25	34.8	0.72×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 110	$135	2.6%	30	31.7	0.95×
Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 47	$132	5.9%	34	73.8	0.46×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$129	2.7%	26	34.8	0.75×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 93	$125	2.8%	38	37.3	1.02×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 79	$122	3.2%	32	43.9	0.73×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 87	$120	2.9%	35	40.0	0.87×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 69	$114	3.5%	49	50.5	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 122	$108	1.9%	24	28.6	0.84×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 85	$81.42	2.0%	33	41.1	0.80×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 147	$74.91	1.1%	22	23.7	0.93×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 130	$73.72	1.2%	26	26.8	0.97×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 71	$67.80	2.0%	35	48.7	0.72×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 119	$67.69	1.2%	26	29.2	0.89×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 99	$64.31	1.4%	32	35.2	0.91×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 105	$63.60	1.3%	28	33.1	0.85×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 99	$61.62	1.3%	17	35.2	0.48×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 86	$59.97	1.5%	35	40.4	0.87×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 127	$59.95	1.0%	20	27.5	0.73×
USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 57	$59.61	2.2%	58	60.9	0.95×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 94	$56.87	1.3%	30	36.9	0.81×
MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 24	$55.16	4.9%	131	145.5	0.90×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 88	$55.01	1.3%	35	39.3	0.89×
★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 24	$54.34	4.9%	155	147.6	1.05×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 167	$53.18	0.7%	24	20.9	1.15×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 120	$51.91	0.9%	21	28.9	0.73×
USP-S \| Orion (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 61	$49.30	1.7%	54	56.8	0.95×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 128	$48.05	0.8%	22	27.2	0.81×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 56	$47.76	1.8%	68	62.0	1.10×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 122	$46.43	0.8%	20	28.6	0.70×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 120	$46.01	0.8%	14	28.9	0.48×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 93	$41.56	0.9%	23	37.3	0.62×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 64	$41.10	1.4%	43	54.3	0.79×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 53	$36.60	1.4%	53	65.5	0.81×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 61	$31.79	1.1%	47	57.1	0.82×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 400	$24.64	0.1%	11	8.7	1.26×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 120	$18.32	0.3%	30	28.9	1.04×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 79	$15.48	0.4%	32	44.2	0.72×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 66	$13.55	0.4%	36	52.6	0.68×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 63	$13.48	0.5%	46	55.4	0.83×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 58	$12.77	0.5%	50	60.2	0.83×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 59	$12.59	0.5%	43	59.2	0.73×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 57	$12.38	0.5%	49	60.6	0.81×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 56	$12.18	0.5%	57	62.3	0.91×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$11.64	0.5%	60	70.0	0.86×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 55	$11.25	0.4%	47	63.4	0.74×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 43	$9.64	0.5%	57	81.1	0.70×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 41	$9.44	0.5%	61	83.9	0.73×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 71	$8.47	0.2%	36	48.7	0.74×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 37	$5.59	0.3%	78	95.1	0.82×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 34	$5.30	0.3%	84	103.4	0.81×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 32	$5.16	0.3%	83	107.9	0.77×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 29	$5.00	0.4%	96	119.8	0.80×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	14.2%	$2.07	0.6%	397	495.1	0.80×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/machine, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$54.25$1,11320.52x22h

★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertFrN_$54.25$1,09720.22x4d

★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$54.25$83115.31x7d

★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertJonyGuardo$54.25$83115.31x7d

★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$54.25$81314.98x22h

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rareMarcHociaS$54.25$79414.63x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Apep's Curseweapon · pinkゼロツー$54.25$56.581.04x2h

M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$54.25$12.480.23x2h

SSG 08 | Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6$54.25$9.890.18x2h

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$54.25$57.331.06x2h

P250 | Apep's Curse (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkゼロツー$54.25$67.801.25x2h

SSG 08 | Big Ironweapon · classifiedthecast2$54.25$10.950.20x3h

M4A4 | Sheet Lightningweapon · violetthecast2$54.25$2.640.05x3h

SSG 08 | Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6thecast2$54.25$9.890.18x3h

M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$54.25$12.480.23x3h

M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff$54.25$2.070.04x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$54.25	87.50%	69
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$54.25	87.34%	69
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$54.25	87.94%	69
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$54.25	87.46%	69
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$54.25	87.56%	69
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$54.25	87.28%	69
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$54.25	87.26%	69
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$54.25	87.67%	69
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$54.25	87.78%	69
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$54.25	87.44%	69
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$54.25	87.59%	69
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$54.25	87.72%	69
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$54.25	87.88%	69
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$54.25	87.60%	69
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$54.25	87.76%	69
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$54.25	87.76%	69
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$54.25	88.02%	69
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$54.25	87.55%	69

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 26.8%rare 1.8%legendary 0.1%Ancient 0.1%extraordinary 9.9%pink 16.3%classified 16.0%restricted 4.2%red 1.7%#d32ee6 2.3%#d32ce6 3.1%#8847ff 17.7%best hit $1,113 (20.52x)