MANTIS JOKER

A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price
$709.78
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
78.85%
252 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
5 openings · below min
7 days
216 openings · below min
30 days
252 openings · below min
since tracking started
252 openings · below min
-0.5%62.0%124.5%

Small sample. 252 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h554.48%±69.6—sample
7d21683.68%±25.5—sample
30d25278.85%±22.0—sample
All25278.85%±22.0—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogKey-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Latest dropsnewest first

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $8,675 (12.42x)