MILSPEC

A case on Key-Drop (WEAPON CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$0.25

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $0.22 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.26%

83K openings, odds method

Variance

7.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

21.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

87.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

81.82%±5.2010.8K openings

7 days

80.63%±2.0468.5K openings

30 days

80.26%±1.8683K openings

since tracking started

80.26%±1.8683K openings

76.0%82.8%89.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 88.87% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (78.40% – 82.13%, 83,011 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	10.8K	81.82%±5.20	−1.8σ	odds
7d	68.5K	80.63%±2.04	−7.8σ	odds
30d	83K	80.26%±1.86	−9.1σ	odds
All	83K	80.26%±1.86	−9.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 83.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 3,704	$20.39	2.5%	11	22.5	0.49×
MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,500	$18.80	3.4%	19	33.3	0.57×
Tec-9 \| Toxic (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,500	$17.34	3.2%	19	33.3	0.57×
Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 1,515	$8.83	2.7%	20	54.9	0.36×
AWP \| Black Nile (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 3,704	$5.39	0.7%	6	22.5	0.27×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 3,704	$3.81	0.5%	5	22.5	0.22×
AWP \| Black Nile (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 1,515	$3.74	1.1%	26	54.9	0.47×
AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 1,087	$3.37	1.4%	24	76.5	0.31×
SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 885	$2.40	1.2%	38	94.0	0.40×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,515	$2.39	0.7%	22	54.9	0.40×
AWP \| Acheron (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,235	$2.39	0.9%	18	67.4	0.27×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 952	$1.91	0.9%	41	87.4	0.47×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 952	$1.90	0.9%	29	87.4	0.33×
SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 518	$1.83	1.6%	47	160.6	0.29×
AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 246	$1.06	2.0%	149	338.6	0.44×
UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 1,282	$0.80	0.3%	17	64.9	0.26×
Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 252	$0.66	1.2%	108	330.3	0.33×
Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)weapon · 1	1 in 134	$0.48	1.6%	233	623.2	0.37×
M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 181	$0.45	1.1%	144	460.1	0.31×
SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 66	$0.41	2.8%	318	1259.6	0.25×
MP9 \| Shredded (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 259	$0.41	0.7%	141	321.1	0.44×
UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 144	$0.39	1.2%	154	576.6	0.27×
P250 \| Cassette (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 52	$0.32	2.8%	1,326	1614.1	0.82×
M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 81	$0.30	1.7%	485	1033.3	0.47×
UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 85	$0.30	1.6%	452	973.4	0.46×
Nova \| Windblown (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 48	$0.30	2.8%	1,576	1721.4	0.92×
UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 44	$0.24	2.5%	314	1875.3	0.17×
XM1014 \| Run Run Run (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 14	$0.20	6.4%	6,192	5861.4	1.06×
MAC-10 \| Light Box (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 14	$0.17	5.7%	7,711	6055.2	1.27×
P250 \| Red Tide (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 13	$0.15	5.1%	7,202	6208.3	1.16×
MP5-SD \| Co-Processor (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 13	$0.15	5.1%	7,014	6208.3	1.13×
Sticker \| Boom Trailsticker · violet	1 in 13	$0.15	5.1%	5,650	6208.3	0.91×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 13	$0.15	5.1%	5,901	6208.3	0.95×
UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 23	$0.14	2.8%	1,885	3580.1	0.53×
MP9 \| Shredded (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 18	$0.14	3.6%	2,152	4692.4	0.46×
Sticker \| Hydro Wavesticker · blue	1 in 13	$0.14	4.8%	7,607	6294.8	1.21×
SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 13	$0.11	4.0%	6,395	6606.0	0.97×
P2000 \| Lifted Spirits (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 13	$0.11	4.0%	5,566	6606.0	0.84×
Sawed-Off \| Spirit Board (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 13	$0.11	4.0%	5,155	6606.0	0.78×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/milspec, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$0.25$21.0384.12x6d

UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil specELCHEMORRITA$0.25$20.6482.56x4d

UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil specAsignación universal por hijo$0.25$20.4681.84x2d

UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil specRui$0.25$20.3581.40x7d

UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil specmeu macho$0.25$20.2881.12x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Hydro Wavesticker · blueyudeS$0.25$0.140.56x6s

SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueyudeS$0.25$0.110.44x6s

M4A4 | Dark Operativeweapon · blueyudeS$0.25$0.351.40x6s

Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueMngsar$0.25$0.110.44x1m

Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueMngsar$0.25$0.150.60x1m

XM1014 | Run Run Run (Field-Tested)weapon · bluepablogilt012$0.25$0.200.80x1m

SSG 08 | Spring Twillyweapon · bluepablogilt012$0.25$2.048.16x1m

P250 | Red Tide (Field-Tested)weapon · blueMngsar$0.25$0.150.60x3m

MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueMngsar$0.25$0.170.68x3m

Sticker | Boom Trailsticker · violetMngsar$0.25$0.150.60x3m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$0.25	87.50%	39
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$0.25	85.84%	39
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$0.25	87.49%	39
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$0.25	87.87%	39
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$0.25	87.07%	39
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.25	87.35%	39
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$0.25	88.34%	39
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$0.25	89.21%	39
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$0.25	90.36%	39
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$0.25	89.51%	39
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$0.25	90.52%	39
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$0.25	90.92%	39
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$0.25	90.44%	39
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$0.25	89.88%	39
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$0.25	89.88%	39
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$0.25	90.29%	39
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$0.25	88.58%	39

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 0.7%mil spec 0.2%blue 88.1%milspec 0.0%Mil Spec Grade 0.1%Rare 0.9%#4b69ff 0.4%Mil Spec 2.1%violet 7.5%best hit $21.03 (84.12x)