MONSTER MASH

A case on Key-Drop (EVENT CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$1.00

Advertised RTP

87.72%

EV $0.88 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.40%

344K openings, odds method

Variance

5.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

83.64%±0.94257K openings

30 days

83.40%±0.82344K openings

since tracking started

83.40%±0.82344K openings

82.0%85.0%88.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.21% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (82.59% – 84.22%, 343,846 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	257K	83.64%±0.94	−7.9σ	odds
30d	344K	83.40%±0.82	−9.1σ	odds
All	344K	83.40%±0.82	−9.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 345K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 33,333	$403	1.4%	9	10.4	0.87×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 100,000	$82.52	0.1%	1	3.5	0.29×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 50,000	$47.55	0.1%	3	6.9	0.43×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 20,000	$45.60	0.3%	12	17.3	0.70×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$42.74	0.2%	5	17.3	0.29×
P90 \| Shallow Grave (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33,333	$36.50	0.1%	8	10.4	0.77×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 50,000	$33.48	0.1%	4	6.9	0.58×
P90 \| Shallow Grave (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 5,882	$28.93	0.6%	30	58.7	0.51×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 50,000	$27.92	0.1%	2	6.9	0.29×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$15.38	0.4%	33	69.0	0.48×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 10,000	$14.30	0.2%	14	34.5	0.41×
P250 \| Kintsugi (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 10,000	$7.50	0.1%	13	34.5	0.38×
MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 10,000	$7.10	0.1%	19	34.5	0.55×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 10,000	$7.01	0.1%	16	34.5	0.46×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 10,000	$6.70	0.1%	19	34.5	0.55×
P250 \| Kintsugi (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 5,000	$6.37	0.1%	33	69.0	0.48×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 10,000	$5.96	0.1%	8	34.5	0.23×
MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$5.81	0.1%	28	69.0	0.41×
MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$5.72	0.1%	44	69.0	0.64×
P250 \| Kintsugi (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 3,333	$4.79	0.2%	67	103.5	0.65×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 1,111	$3.84	0.4%	153	310.5	0.49×
P2000 \| Turf (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 476	$3.62	0.9%	524	724.6	0.72×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 909	$3.55	0.4%	338	379.5	0.89×
Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 42	$3.14	8.6%	6,150	8280.9	0.74×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · blue	1 in 50	$2.30	5.2%	6,315	6900.8	0.92×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Hunter (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · blue	1 in 45	$2.08	5.2%	7,208	7590.8	0.95×
MP7 \| Prey (Factory New)weapon · gray	1 in 41	$1.90	5.2%	7,266	8315.4	0.87×
UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 38	$1.74	5.2%	8,212	9109.0	0.90×
SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Factory New)weapon · gray	1 in 43	$1.33	3.5%	7,348	7970.4	0.92×
XM1014 \| Ziggy (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 40	$1.22	3.5%	8,168	8729.5	0.94×
XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 39	$1.19	3.5%	8,793	8936.5	0.98×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 38	$1.16	3.5%	8,554	9178.0	0.93×
CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray	1 in 36	$1.12	3.5%	9,398	9488.5	0.99×
P250 \| Forest Night (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray	1 in 35	$1.07	3.5%	9,798	9937.1	0.99×
Sticker \| Rainbow Routesticker · violet	1 in 14	$0.66	5.5%	24,943	25084.3	0.99×
Sticker \| High Heatsticker · blue	1 in 14	$0.66	5.5%	25,791	25084.3	1.03×
SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 13	$0.63	5.3%	24,956	25601.8	0.97×
SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray	1 in 13	$0.63	5.3%	25,107	25601.8	0.98×
P90 \| Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray	1 in 12	$0.48	4.5%	29,131	28569.1	1.02×
Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 12	$0.48	4.5%	28,434	28569.1	1.00×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 12	$0.45	4.4%	30,913	29328.2	1.05×
Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 12	$0.44	4.3%	31,645	29569.8	1.07×
Nova \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray	1 in 11	$0.39	4.0%	35,076	31053.4	1.13×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/monster-mash, 9 Nov, 08:09 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire✞????????????✞$1.00$413412.9x6d

★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireMaestro Astilla$1.00$409409.2x5d

★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphirelautaroaguilera014$1.00$408407.7x2d

★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphireᴀᴍɪᴛᴀʙʜᴀ$1.00$408407.7x7d

★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$1.00$408407.7x7d

★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$1.00$408407.7x3d

M4A4 | Full Throttle (Minimal Wear)weapon · red$1.00$86.0486.04x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested)weapon · violetsmall man$1.00$0.480.48x2d

Sticker | Rainbow Routesticker · violetPRIZMA$1.00$0.660.66x2d

P90 | Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray_SylphX_$1.00$0.480.48x2d

Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested)weapon · violetsmall man$1.00$0.500.50x2d

Sticker | Rainbow Routesticker · violetPRIZMA$1.00$0.660.66x2d

P90 | Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear)weapon · graysmall man$1.00$0.480.48x2d

Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$1.00$0.440.44x2d

Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$1.00$0.500.50x2d

Tec-9 | Brother (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$1.00$0.450.45x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.72%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$1.00	87.72%	43
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$1.00	87.98%	43
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$1.00	87.11%	43
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$1.00	87.67%	43
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$1.00	87.27%	43
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$1.00	87.19%	43
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$1.00	87.57%	43
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$1.00	87.73%	43
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$1.00	87.36%	43
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$1.00	87.12%	43
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$1.00	86.05%	43
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$1.00	87.09%	43
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$1.00	87.12%	43

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%red 0.0%Ancient 0.0%classified 0.1%pink 0.3%Legendary 0.0%rare 0.0%#d32ce6 0.0%#4b69ff 0.2%violet 42.8%blue 21.5%gray 35.1%best hit $413 (412.9x)