MOON WISH

A case on Key-Drop (HALLOWEEN), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$3.00

Advertised RTP

87.74%

EV $2.63 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.80%

66.4K openings, odds method

Variance

5.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

84.93%±1.9551.1K openings

30 days

84.80%±1.7166.4K openings

since tracking started

84.80%±1.7166.4K openings

82.5%85.5%88.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.75% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (83.09% – 86.51%, 66,374 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	51.1K	84.93%±1.95	−2.8σ	odds
30d	66.4K	84.80%±1.71	−3.4σ	odds
All	66.4K	84.80%±1.71	−3.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 67.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 33,333	$794	0.9%	1	2.0	0.50×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 14,286	$526	1.4%	4	4.7	0.85×
★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 10,000	$132	0.5%	7	6.7	1.04×
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$97.94	0.4%	2	6.7	0.30×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$54.24	0.4%	14	13.4	1.04×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$43.60	0.8%	21	33.6	0.62×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 2,500	$40.66	0.6%	36	26.9	1.34×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 2,000	$30.61	0.6%	18	33.6	0.54×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 714	$17.16	0.9%	47	94.1	0.50×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 1,429	$15.98	0.4%	26	47.0	0.55×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 455	$10.77	0.9%	56	147.9	0.38×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 192	$10.63	2.1%	169	349.5	0.48×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 417	$10.32	0.9%	100	161.3	0.62×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 286	$8.55	1.1%	150	235.2	0.64×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 286	$8.52	1.1%	109	235.2	0.46×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 278	$8.34	1.1%	133	242.0	0.55×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 256	$8.06	1.2%	156	262.1	0.60×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 250	$7.96	1.2%	148	268.8	0.55×
FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 27	$7.17	10.1%	2,075	2486.7	0.83×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 16	$4.36	10.1%	4,068	4079.6	1.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 29	$3.76	4.9%	1,303	2305.3	0.57×
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 29	$3.68	4.9%	1,527	2352.3	0.65×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 26	$3.55	5.2%	1,571	2580.8	0.61×
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$3.46	5.2%	1,665	2648.0	0.63×
XM1014 \| Watchdog (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 43	$2.04	1.8%	897	1552.5	0.58×
Sticker \| Winding Scorchsticker · pink	1 in 12	$1.89	6.0%	5,687	5585.1	1.02×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Hunter (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · blue	1 in 12	$1.84	5.9%	5,498	5685.9	0.97×
UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 12	$1.72	5.7%	5,898	5833.7	1.01×
XM1014 \| Watchdog (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 32	$1.65	1.9%	1,379	2090.2	0.66×
Sticker \| Cedar Creeksticker · violet	1 in 11	$1.63	5.5%	5,974	5974.9	1.00×
XM1014 \| Watchdog (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 31	$1.59	2.0%	1,342	2184.3	0.61×
UMP-45 \| Grand Prix (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 11	$1.48	5.2%	6,333	6169.8	1.03×
XM1014 \| Blue Tire (Factory New)weapon · gray	10.1%	$1.19	4.5%	7,284	6754.5	1.08×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Factory New)weapon · gray	10.1%	$1.19	4.5%	6,894	6754.5	1.02×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/moon-wish, 10 Nov, 02:22 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare$3.00$786261.9x2d

★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldFan4Haze$3.00$527175.6x2d

★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$3.00$527175.6x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

XM1014 | Blue Tire (Factory New)weapon · grayIDK.GABY$3.00$1.190.40x1d

XM1014 | Watchdogweapon · blueIDK.GABY$3.00$1.730.58x1d

UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blueIDK.GABY$3.00$1.720.57x1d

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Factory New)weapon · grayIDK.GABY$3.00$1.190.40x1d

FAMAS | Doomkitty (Field-Tested)weapon · blueIDK.GABY$3.00$7.172.39x1d

Sticker | Winding Scorchsticker · pinkIDK.GABY$3.00$1.890.63x1d

FAMAS | Doomkitty (Field-Tested)weapon · blueIDK.GABY$3.00$7.172.39x1d

Sticker | Cedar Creeksticker · violetIDK.GABY$3.00$1.630.54x1d

Sticker | Winding Scorchsticker · pinkIDK.GABY$3.00$1.890.63x1d

XM1014 | Watchdogweapon · blueIDK.GABY$3.00$1.730.58x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.74%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$3.00	87.74%	34
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$3.00	87.92%	34
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$3.00	87.67%	34
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$3.00	87.84%	34
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$3.00	87.86%	34
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$3.00	87.87%	34
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$3.00	87.98%	34
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$3.00	87.68%	34
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$3.00	87.38%	34
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$3.00	87.70%	34
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$3.00	87.72%	34
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$3.00	87.52%	34
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$3.00	87.81%	34
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$3.00	87.62%	34
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$3.00	87.68%	34

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrare 0.0%covert 0.1%sunny 0.0%red 0.0%pink 30.8%#d32ce6 0.1%classified 1.3%blue 29.5%violet 18.1%gray 20.1%best hit $786 (261.9x)