NIGHT CALLS

A case on Key-Drop (ANIME CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$237.50

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $207.81 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.66%

898 openings, odds method

Variance

1.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

31.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

78.36%±22.00116 openings

7 days

87.72%±8.79715 openings

30 days

87.66%±7.81898 openings

since tracking started

87.66%±7.81898 openings

55.5%78.3%101.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	116	78.36%±22.0	−0.8σ	odds
7d	715	87.72%±8.79	+0.0σ	odds
30d	898	87.66%±7.81	+0.0σ	odds
All	898	87.66%±7.81	+0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 898 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 10,000	$15.9K	0.8%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$6,939	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 2,500	$3,631	0.7%	0	0.4	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl	1 in 2,000	$3,063	0.7%	1	0.4	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,250	$1,812	0.7%	0	0.7	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 833	$1,232	0.7%	3	1.1	2.78×
★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 769	$1,109	0.7%	1	1.2	0.86×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 625	$934	0.7%	1	1.4	0.70×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 45	$744	8.0%	10	20.1	0.50×
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl	1 in 37	$619	8.0%	23	24.2	0.95×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 46	$499	5.2%	21	19.5	1.08×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 303	$464	0.7%	2	3.0	0.67×
AUG \| Midnight Lily (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 38	$409	5.2%	38	23.8	1.60×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 37	$399	5.2%	32	24.4	1.31×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 36	$393	5.2%	35	24.8	1.41×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	15.6%	$273	20.5%	46	140.3	0.33×
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 27	$237	4.2%	102	33.2	3.07×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 27	$214	3.8%	27	33.2	0.81×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 86	$209	1.2%	8	10.4	0.77×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 85	$207	1.2%	7	10.5	0.67×
★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 26	$192	3.6%	29	34.7	0.84×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 24	$158	3.2%	37	37.4	0.99×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 88	$147	0.8%	8	10.2	0.78×
AWP \| CMYK (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 47	$146	1.5%	16	19.2	0.83×
AWP \| CMYK (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 46	$145	1.5%	12	19.5	0.62×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 57	$108	0.9%	12	15.8	0.76×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 54	$104	0.9%	13	16.5	0.79×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 51	$89.67	0.9%	12	17.8	0.67×
UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$89.39	2.3%	49	47.1	1.04×
FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 18	$82.70	2.2%	50	48.7	1.03×
AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 100	$81.30	0.4%	7	9.0	0.78×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 17	$71.83	2.0%	42	51.5	0.82×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 63	$70.80	0.5%	12	14.3	0.84×
AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 63	$58.10	0.4%	16	14.3	1.12×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 43	$54.24	0.6%	19	20.7	0.92×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$54.19	1.0%	18	35.9	0.50×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 42	$53.21	0.6%	16	21.2	0.75×
AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 55	$53.10	0.5%	5	16.3	0.31×
AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 54	$52.50	0.5%	9	16.5	0.54×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 30	$49.30	0.8%	25	29.9	0.84×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 31	$49.23	0.8%	20	28.6	0.70×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/night-calls, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl-melo$238$3,13313.19x4d

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$238$1,2325.19x21h

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$238$1,2065.08x1d

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$238$1,2055.07x21h

★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$238$1,1254.74x2d

★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$238$9504.00x4d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$238$7533.17x6d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$238$7533.17x4d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphirePYREXX-$238$7533.17x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1Mr.BOOM$238$2371.00x9h

AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$238$54.240.23x9h

M4A1-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$238$2731.15x9h

Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$238$54.190.23x9h

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1Mr.BOOM$238$2371.00x9h

AWP | Printstreamweapon · redfer_otake$238$58.720.25x10h

AWP | CMYKweapon · reddq$238$1460.61x13h

AWP | CMYK (Well-Worn)weapon · reddq$238$1460.62x13h

UMP-45 | Crime Scene (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$238$89.390.38x13h

AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$238$54.240.23x13h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$238	87.50%	41
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$238	87.79%	41
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$238	87.35%	41
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$238	87.68%	41
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$238	87.39%	41
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$238	87.61%	41
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$238	87.72%	41
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$238	87.44%	41
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$238	87.65%	41
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$238	87.59%	41
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$238	87.82%	41
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$238	87.57%	41
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$238	87.67%	41
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$238	87.84%	41
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$238	87.38%	41
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$238	87.87%	41
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$238	87.70%	41

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 48.8%legendary 2.8%restricted 7.9%gold 3.7%rare 3.9%classified 4.7%red 20.2%blue 5.4%Ancient 2.6%best hit $3,133 (13.19x)