PIKA PIKA

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$3.64

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $3.18 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.74%

5,906 openings, odds method

Variance

10.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

65.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

81.00%±27.91540 openings

7 days

82.83%±9.285,081 openings

30 days

82.74%±8.645,906 openings

since tracking started

82.74%±8.645,906 openings

52.5%81.0%109.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	540	81.00%±27.9	−0.5σ	odds
7d	5,081	82.83%±9.28	−1.0σ	odds
30d	5,906	82.74%±8.64	−1.1σ	odds
All	5,906	82.74%±8.64	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,952 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$1,572	2.5%	0	0.3	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 16,667	$264	0.5%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$122	0.3%	0	0.5	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 4,167	$89.30	0.7%	1	1.4	0.70×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,125	$64.31	0.6%	2	1.9	1.05×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,128	$43.82	0.6%	2	2.8	0.71×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,786	$36.60	0.6%	2	3.3	0.60×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,846	$35.91	0.3%	1	1.5	0.65×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 1,538	$31.79	0.6%	3	3.9	0.78×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 2,500	$28.80	0.4%	4	2.4	1.68×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,632	$22.15	0.3%	0	2.3	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,010	$20.70	0.6%	5	5.9	0.85×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 952	$19.39	0.6%	3	6.2	0.48×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,222	$15.31	0.2%	3	2.7	1.12×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 2,222	$15.28	0.2%	1	2.7	0.37×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,220	$14.98	0.4%	3	4.9	0.61×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 2,128	$14.83	0.2%	0	2.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 98	$13.55	4.3%	31	60.5	0.51×
PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 44	$12.82	9.0%	148	133.8	1.11×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 82	$12.38	4.7%	67	72.4	0.92×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 87	$9.17	3.3%	57	68.7	0.83×
Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 39	$7.52	6.1%	90	153.7	0.59×
XM1014 \| Incinegator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 35	$6.78	6.1%	89	170.8	0.52×
XM1014 \| Incinegator (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 34	$6.73	6.2%	103	173.3	0.59×
XM1014 \| Incinegator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 32	$6.54	6.3%	107	183.6	0.58×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 29	$5.32	5.8%	173	206.5	0.84×
P90 \| Desert Warfare (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 13	$3.88	9.2%	546	447.3	1.22×
Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 19	$3.67	6.2%	242	317.8	0.76×
Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 13	$1.95	4.5%	429	441.2	0.97×
UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 13	$1.74	4.2%	426	458.1	0.93×
XM1014 \| Ziggy (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 11	$1.28	3.5%	524	517.9	1.01×
Sticker \| Rush 4x20sticker · violet	1 in 11	$1.13	3.2%	552	544.5	1.01×
Sticker \| Hypnoteyessticker · violet	1 in 10	$0.91	2.8%	617	593.7	1.04×
Sticker \| Cutiesticker · violet	10.8%	$0.74	2.5%	643	644.9	1.00×
Sticker \| Ribbon Tiesticker · blue	12.1%	$0.56	2.1%	731	717.5	1.02×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/pika-pika, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P90 | Desert Warfare (Minimal Wear)weapon · RarePièrre Sanchèz$3.64$3.881.07x25m

UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blueMichalgar D. Law$3.64$1.740.48x29m

Sticker | Cutiesticker · violetMichalgar D. Law$3.64$0.740.20x29m

Sticker | Rush 4x20sticker · violetMichalgar D. Law$3.64$1.130.31x29m

XM1014 | Ziggy (Field-Tested)weapon · violetMichalgar D. Law$3.64$1.280.35x29m

UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blueMichalgar D. Law$3.64$1.740.48x29m

Sticker | Hypnoteyessticker · violetMichalgar D. Law$3.64$0.910.25x29m

Sticker | Ribbon Tiesticker · blueMichalgar D. Law$3.64$0.560.15x29m

Sticker | Rush 4x20sticker · violet☣Zypki☣$3.64$1.130.31x29m

P90 | Desert Warfare (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare$3.64$3.881.07x30m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$3.64	87.50%	35
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$3.64	87.84%	35
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$3.64	87.69%	35
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$3.64	87.60%	35
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$3.64	87.68%	35
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$3.64	87.41%	35
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$3.64	87.55%	35
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$3.64	87.18%	35
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$3.64	87.36%	35
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$3.64	87.52%	35
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$3.64	87.25%	35
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$3.64	87.76%	35
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$3.64	87.42%	35
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$3.64	87.38%	35
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$3.64	87.74%	35
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$3.64	87.40%	35
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$3.64	87.57%	35

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 17.4%covert 0.2%restricted 2.6%rare 0.1%violet 46.1%pink 1.0%Rare 7.5%Mythical 5.3%blue 19.8%best hit —