PIKA PIKA JOKER

A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$111.03

Advertised RTP

—

no catalog

Observed RTP, 30d

78.78%

455 openings, sample method

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

126 openings · below min

7 days

426 openings · below min

30 days

455 openings · below min

since tracking started

455 openings · below min

29.0%75.3%121.5%

Small sample. 455 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	126	75.43%±45.6	—	sample
7d	426	77.05%±25.2	—	sample
30d	455	78.78%±24.5	—	sample
All	455	78.78%±24.5	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogKey-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified$111$1,66515.01x8d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified$109$1,62314.93x6d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified$107$1,60314.93x4d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified$106$1,60115.08x1d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified0nz$106$1,60115.08x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | High Roller (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedGustavo JR$106$13.140.12x44m

FAMAS | Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covertZӨΗЯIK$106$39.080.37x2h

AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$106$35.080.33x2h

★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$106$89.370.84x2h

Sticker | Hypnoteyessticker · violet$106$0.910.01x2h

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$106$16.440.15x2h

AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$106$44.140.42x2h

FAMAS | Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covertZӨΗЯIK$106$35.060.33x2h

SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedBigJota$106$21.920.21x3h

CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacketweapon · classifiedBigJota$106$7.490.07x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $1,665 (15.01x)