PINK STAR

A case on Key-Drop (ANIME CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$15.35

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $13.43 from 52 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.24%

4,735 openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

84.13%±11.74345 openings

7 days

85.74%±3.463,986 openings

30 days

85.24%±3.184,735 openings

since tracking started

85.24%±3.184,735 openings

71.5%84.0%96.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	345	84.13%±11.7	−0.6σ	odds
7d	3,986	85.74%±3.46	−1.2σ	odds
30d	4,735	85.24%±3.18	−1.6σ	odds
All	4,735	85.24%±3.18	−1.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values52 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,735 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 20,000	$1,068	0.4%	1	0.2	—
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$783	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · gold · Sapphire	1 in 8,333	$469	0.4%	0	0.6	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 5,000	$379	0.6%	1	0.9	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 5,000	$237	0.4%	2	0.9	—
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$205	0.3%	0	0.9	—
★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$173	0.4%	1	1.4	0.70×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 2,500	$137	0.4%	2	1.9	1.06×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$122	0.2%	0	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$114	0.2%	1	0.9	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$82.41	0.4%	2	2.8	0.70×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$81.04	0.1%	0	0.9	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$72.60	0.1%	0	0.9	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$71.39	0.1%	1	0.9	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$70.80	0.1%	1	0.9	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$64.31	0.4%	7	3.8	1.85×
AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 2,500	$58.10	0.2%	4	1.9	2.11×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 164	$54.24	2.5%	10	28.9	0.35×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 159	$53.21	2.5%	20	29.8	0.67×
AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 111	$53.10	3.6%	32	42.6	0.75×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 139	$42.18	2.3%	20	34.1	0.59×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 137	$41.68	2.3%	22	34.6	0.64×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 133	$41.37	2.3%	19	35.5	0.54×
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 68	$33.60	3.7%	34	69.1	0.49×
AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 54	$29.96	4.1%	42	87.1	0.48×
AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 51	$28.91	4.2%	63	93.3	0.68×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 35	$26.55	5.6%	77	133.5	0.58×
AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 59	$26.52	3.4%	43	80.5	0.53×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 31	$23.00	5.5%	99	151.5	0.65×
AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 48	$22.06	3.4%	73	99.0	0.74×
USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 15	$20.36	10.2%	359	319.1	1.12×
AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 37	$19.34	3.9%	94	129.3	0.73×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 22	$14.20	4.7%	193	211.2	0.91×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 23	$13.48	4.4%	229	206.9	1.11×
AWP \| The End (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 49	$12.03	1.8%	65	96.1	0.68×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 79	$10.60	1.0%	50	59.7	0.84×
AWP \| The End (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 36	$9.60	2.0%	99	132.1	0.75×
AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 43	$8.56	1.5%	85	110.8	0.77×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 49	$7.50	1.1%	68	96.6	0.70×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 49	$7.50	1.1%	75	96.6	0.78×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 103	$7.26	0.5%	32	45.9	0.70×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 18	$6.98	3.0%	280	269.4	1.04×
AWP \| POP AWP (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 32	$6.90	1.6%	103	149.6	0.69×
UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 16	$5.25	2.5%	321	301.6	1.06×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 15	$5.04	2.4%	309	306.8	1.01×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 56	$4.67	0.6%	66	84.8	0.78×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$4.61	0.6%	61	86.7	0.70×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 51	$4.37	0.6%	66	93.3	0.71×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 14	$4.27	2.2%	319	327.7	0.97×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 32	$4.15	1.0%	105	150.1	0.70×
P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 14	$4.11	2.2%	361	332.9	1.08×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$3.44	1.0%	118	187.0	0.63×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/pink-star, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$15.35$1,07369.87x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedmɅck$15.35$13.480.88x14m

Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedmɅck$15.35$14.000.91x15m

AWP | Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink$15.35$25.791.68x15m

Glock-18 | AXIA (Field-Tested)weapon · rare$15.35$22.821.49x15m

M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified$15.35$5.020.33x15m

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkelSimione$15.35$5.250.34x39m

AWP | Printstreamweapon · redZevkLast`iN$15.35$53.313.47x39m

Glock-18 | AXIAweapon · pinkARMI$15.35$24.661.61x1h

Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$15.35$14.000.91x1h

USP-S | Overgrowth (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$15.35$21.111.38x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$15.35	87.50%	52
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$15.35	87.63%	52
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$15.35	87.87%	52
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$15.35	87.74%	52
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$15.35	87.72%	52
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$15.35	87.83%	52
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$15.35	87.75%	52
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$15.35	87.81%	52
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$15.35	87.95%	52
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$15.35	87.70%	52
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$15.35	87.83%	52
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$15.35	88.07%	52
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$15.35	87.86%	52
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$15.35	87.90%	52
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$15.35	87.94%	52
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$15.35	87.94%	52
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$15.35	87.88%	52

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 3.0%gold 0.0%red 1.7%Ancient 0.0%classified 17.4%rare 8.1%pink 41.7%restricted 11.5%uncommon 2.7%violet 4.1%#8847ff 3.2%Classified 6.5%best hit $1,073 (69.87x)