SCARLET CATCH

A case on Key-Drop (EVENT CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$250.00

Advertised RTP

87.12%

EV $217.81 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.06%

12.3K openings, odds method

Variance

0.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

84.01%±1.798,294 openings

30 days

85.06%±1.4712.3K openings

since tracking started

85.06%±1.4712.3K openings

81.5%84.7%88.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.12% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (83.59% – 86.53%, 12,325 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	8,294	84.01%±1.79	−3.2σ	odds
30d	12.3K	85.06%±1.47	−2.7σ	odds
All	12.3K	85.06%±1.47	−2.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 10,000	$9,653	0.4%	1	1.3	0.80×
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$5,749	0.3%	1	1.3	0.80×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl	1 in 5,000	$3,050	0.3%	1	2.5	0.40×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 3,333	$1,875	0.3%	5	3.8	1.33×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 2,500	$1,659	0.3%	2	5.0	0.40×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 2,500	$1,466	0.3%	4	5.0	0.80×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 909	$1,154	0.6%	9	13.8	0.65×
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$1,054	0.0%	2	1.3	1.59×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 196	$876	2.1%	51	64.0	0.80×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 73	$762	4.8%	154	172.0	0.90×
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 149	$738	2.3%	52	84.1	0.62×
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 127	$673	2.4%	46	99.2	0.46×
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$577	8.0%	385	380.4	1.01×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 30	$519	7.9%	434	418.0	1.04×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 26	$458	8.1%	479	483.3	0.99×
Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 29	$328	5.2%	463	433.1	1.07×
★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 24	$263	5.1%	525	533.5	0.98×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 22	$251	5.2%	588	563.6	1.04×
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 22	$249	5.1%	552	563.6	0.98×
★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 13	$187	6.5%	1,015	951.5	1.07×
P90 \| Run and Hide (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 13	$156	5.7%	1,004	1003.0	1.00×
MAC-10 \| Graven (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$144	5.4%	991	1029.3	0.96×
Nova \| Baroque Orange (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 12	$136	5.2%	1,082	1055.7	1.02×
SG 553 \| Tornado (Factory New)weapon · gray	1 in 12	$128	5.1%	1,055	1082.1	0.97×
Sawed-Off \| Copper (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 12	$128	5.1%	1,070	1082.1	0.99×
★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 21	$94.30	2.1%	421	610.1	0.69×
★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 20	$91.69	2.1%	406	627.7	0.65×
FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	10.2%	$85.83	4.0%	1,313	1282.9	1.02×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/scarlet-catch, 9 Nov, 08:09 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyTHIAGOPEEK$250$9,65938.63x6d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$250$5,40121.60x7d

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl$250$3,18112.72x5d

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$250$1,8957.58x5d

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby(YT) USE CODE BETZY$250$1,8957.58x7d

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$250$1,8757.50x2d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$250$1,6646.66x6d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$250$1,6566.62x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

FAMAS | Sundown (Field-Tested)weapon · blueNAZARIO_F9$250$85.830.34x2d

P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkNAZARIO_F9$250$1560.62x2d

FAMAS | Sundown (Field-Tested)weapon · blueNAZARIO_F9$250$85.830.34x2d

★ Navaja Knife | Case Hardenedknife · rareNAZARIO_F9$250$92.980.37x2d

FAMAS | Sundown (Field-Tested)weapon · blueNAZARIO_F9$250$85.830.34x2d

SG 553 | Tornado (Factory New)weapon · grayNAZARIO_F9$250$1280.51x2d

Nova | Baroque Orange (Field-Tested)weapon · violetNAZARIO_F9$250$1360.54x2d

★ Falchion Knife | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · goldNAZARIO_F9$250$1870.75x2d

★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · goldNAZARIO_F9$250$2631.05x2d

FAMAS | Sundown (Field-Tested)weapon · blueNAZARIO_F9$250$85.830.34x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.12%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$250	87.12%	28
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$250	86.95%	28
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$250	86.06%	28
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$250	86.01%	28
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$250	86.35%	28
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$250	86.41%	28
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$250	87.40%	28
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$250	87.54%	28
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$250	87.35%	28
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$250	87.58%	28
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$250	87.35%	28
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$250	87.61%	28
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$250	87.72%	28

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 14.4%legendary 0.0%extraordinary 1.5%restricted 14.7%gold 25.5%pink 8.0%violet 8.4%gray 8.6%blue 18.8%best hit $9,659 (38.63x)