SIGNAL
A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$2.96
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $2.59 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.27%
21.1K openings, odds method
Variance
178.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 96
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.1K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 33,333 | $6,311 | 7.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,333 | $609 | 17.6% | 15 | 15.8 | 0.95× |
| AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,111 | $139 | 4.8% | 17 | 19.0 | 0.89× |
| AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 719 | $110 | 5.9% | 29 | 29.3 | 0.99× |
| AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 535 | $94.65 | 6.8% | 32 | 39.5 | 0.81× |
| AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 559 | $62.98 | 4.4% | 26 | 37.8 | 0.69× |
| AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 274 | $54.81 | 7.7% | 53 | 77.0 | 0.69× |
| AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 175 | $43.82 | 9.7% | 89 | 120.5 | 0.74× |
| AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 251 | $42.18 | 6.5% | 59 | 84.0 | 0.70× |
| AWP | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red | 1 in 245 | $41.68 | 6.6% | 51 | 86.1 | 0.59× |
| AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 22 | $9.95 | 17.4% | 650 | 953.6 | 0.68× |
| AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 93.1% | $0.15 | 5.4% | 19,992 | 19643.7 | 1.02× |
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/signal, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $2.96 | 87.50% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $2.96 | 87.31% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $2.96 | 87.32% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $2.96 | 87.07% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $2.96 | 87.31% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.96 | 87.39% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $2.96 | 87.12% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $2.96 | 87.39% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $2.96 | 87.96% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $2.96 | 87.28% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $2.96 | 88.09% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $2.96 | 88.06% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $2.96 | 87.16% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $2.96 | 87.84% | 12 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $2.96 | 87.31% | 12 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $2.96 | 87.35% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.96 | 87.57% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.0%red 0.4%restricted 4.5%industrial 93.1%best hit $6,311 (2,132x)