SINDEL

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$5.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $4.38 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.76%

5,677 openings, odds method

Variance

15.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 37

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

87.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

54.82%±48.35248 openings

7 days

88.29%±10.465,211 openings

30 days

91.76%±10.035,677 openings

since tracking started

91.76%±10.035,677 openings

6.0%55.0%104.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	248	54.82%±48.3	−1.3σ	odds
7d	5,211	88.29%±10.5	+0.1σ	odds
30d	5,677	91.76%±10.0	+0.8σ	odds
All	5,677	91.76%±10.0	+0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,686 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33,333	$1,109	0.8%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 20,000	$787	0.9%	3	0.3	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 2,326	$499	4.9%	2	2.4	0.82×
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · gold · Phase 3	1 in 1,316	$283	4.9%	3	4.3	0.69×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 676	$145	4.9%	7	8.4	0.83×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,389	$144	2.4%	3	4.1	0.73×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,190	$133	2.6%	1	4.8	0.21×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,941	$108	0.8%	1	1.9	0.52×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 901	$87.50	2.2%	5	6.3	0.79×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,389	$73.72	1.2%	3	4.1	0.73×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 629	$73.13	2.7%	3	9.0	0.33×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$67.48	1.5%	6	5.7	1.06×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 917	$64.58	1.6%	6	6.2	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,064	$64.31	1.4%	7	5.3	1.31×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 926	$59.97	1.5%	3	6.1	0.49×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 787	$59.71	1.7%	5	7.2	0.69×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 258	$54.95	4.9%	21	22.0	0.95×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 459	$48.05	2.4%	9	12.4	0.73×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 429	$46.43	2.5%	7	13.2	0.53×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 205	$43.49	4.9%	25	27.7	0.90×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 602	$40.50	1.5%	4	9.4	0.42×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 513	$37.34	1.7%	8	11.1	0.72×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 505	$37.00	1.7%	11	11.3	0.98×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 146	$30.97	4.8%	35	38.9	0.90×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 314	$20.29	1.5%	15	18.1	0.83×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 262	$18.51	1.6%	17	21.7	0.78×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 218	$16.90	1.8%	17	26.0	0.65×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 139	$9.74	1.6%	36	40.9	0.88×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 137	$9.69	1.6%	28	41.4	0.68×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 134	$9.58	1.6%	27	42.4	0.64×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 82	$6.69	1.9%	48	69.0	0.70×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 79	$5.27	1.5%	52	72.1	0.72×
UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 78	$5.10	1.5%	62	73.1	0.85×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 72	$5.04	1.6%	64	78.9	0.81×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 33	$4.68	3.2%	120	170.2	0.71×
UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 34	$4.59	3.1%	100	168.8	0.59×
UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 33	$4.55	3.1%	98	171.2	0.57×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 18	$4.15	5.4%	192	321.9	0.60×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 33	$3.23	2.2%	128	172.1	0.74×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	13.3%	$1.28	3.9%	455	756.5	0.60×
Sticker \| Rush Moresticker · blue	56.6%	$0.20	2.6%	3,284	3219.2	1.02×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/sindel, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rareAmalgama$5.00$799159.9x3d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rareOscar TOP TIER$5.00$748149.7x4d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$5.00$518103.5x8d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$5.00$49598.91x3d

★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · gold · Phase 3$5.00$27755.40x6d

★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · gold · Phase 3$5.00$27755.30x6d

★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · gold · Phase 3$5.00$27555.05x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Rush Moresticker · blueEnfoire$5.00$0.200.04x1h

M4A1-S | Black Lotusweapon · pinkDemon.!.$5.00$4.900.98x1h

USP-S | Bleeding Edgeweapon · restrictedDemon.!.$5.00$1.640.33x1h

USP-S | Bleeding Edgeweapon · restrictedBreen$5.00$1.640.33x1h

Sticker | Rush Moresticker · blueBreen$5.00$0.200.04x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$5.00	87.50%	41
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$5.00	87.78%	41
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$5.00	87.14%	41
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$5.00	87.81%	41
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$5.00	87.87%	41
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$5.00	87.40%	41
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$5.00	87.10%	41
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$5.00	87.92%	41
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$5.00	87.76%	41
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$5.00	87.51%	41
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$5.00	87.89%	41
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$5.00	87.88%	41
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$5.00	87.30%	41
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$5.00	87.59%	41
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$5.00	87.59%	41
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$5.00	87.34%	41
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$5.00	86.87%	41

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 2.3%rare 0.0%gold 0.1%red 1.5%classified 9.0%pink 8.5%Legendary 4.3%Classified 1.4%Mythical 16.3%blue 56.6%best hit $799 (159.9x)