SKETCH

A case on Key-Drop (ANIME CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$1.85

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $1.62 from 69 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.79%

11.8K openings, odds method

Variance

25.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

82.61%±28.381,228 openings

7 days

82.75%±10.289,409 openings

30 days

82.79%±9.1811.8K openings

since tracking started

82.79%±9.1811.8K openings

53.5%82.5%111.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,228	82.61%±28.4	−0.3σ	odds
7d	9,409	82.75%±10.3	−0.9σ	odds
30d	11.8K	82.79%±9.18	−1.0σ	odds
All	11.8K	82.79%±9.18	−1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values69 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
MP9 \| Wild Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$2,718	1.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 33,333	$572	1.1%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 16,667	$139	0.5%	0	0.7	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$54.24	0.7%	3	2.4	1.27×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 5,000	$42.81	0.5%	2	2.4	0.85×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$35.79	0.7%	3	3.5	0.85×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 3,333	$27.90	0.5%	7	3.5	1.97×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 10,000	$16.70	0.1%	0	1.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 10,000	$15.57	0.1%	0	1.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 5,000	$13.20	0.2%	4	2.4	1.69×
P90 \| Sunset Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 1,250	$11.39	0.6%	12	9.5	1.27×
AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$9.95	0.1%	0	1.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 5,000	$9.69	0.1%	0	2.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 3,333	$8.68	0.2%	3	3.5	0.85×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$8.40	0.2%	1	3.5	0.28×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 3,333	$8.29	0.2%	0	3.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 2,000	$7.85	0.2%	3	5.9	0.51×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,500	$7.69	0.2%	1	4.7	0.21×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 2,000	$7.02	0.2%	5	5.9	0.85×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 294	$6.84	1.4%	12	40.2	0.30×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 323	$6.43	1.2%	26	36.6	0.71×
P250 \| Visions (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 500	$5.63	0.7%	13	23.6	0.55×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 385	$5.50	0.9%	24	30.7	0.78×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 92	$5.33	3.6%	92	128.8	0.71×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 769	$5.18	0.4%	12	15.4	0.78×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 143	$5.04	2.2%	68	82.7	0.82×
MAC-10 \| Aloha (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 85	$4.95	3.6%	122	138.3	0.88×
Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 323	$4.88	0.9%	19	36.6	0.52×
AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 123	$4.33	2.2%	52	95.7	0.54×
AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 122	$4.30	2.2%	54	96.9	0.56×
USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 345	$4.20	0.8%	34	34.3	0.99×
P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 139	$4.11	1.8%	56	85.1	0.66×
P250 \| Visions (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 132	$4.00	1.9%	45	89.8	0.50×
P250 \| Visions (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 127	$3.94	1.9%	64	93.4	0.69×
Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 87	$3.54	2.5%	57	135.9	0.42×
Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 588	$3.53	0.4%	8	20.1	0.40×
Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 78	$3.34	2.7%	84	152.5	0.55×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 81	$3.27	2.5%	109	146.6	0.74×
AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 63	$3.22	3.2%	101	189.1	0.53×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 256	$2.88	0.7%	23	46.1	0.50×
AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$2.69	8.0%	275	570.9	0.48×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 32	$2.17	4.1%	161	364.0	0.44×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 29	$2.05	4.4%	172	407.8	0.42×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 27	$1.99	4.5%	137	432.6	0.32×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 39	$1.84	2.9%	335	300.2	1.12×
Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 204	$1.60	0.5%	33	57.9	0.57×
Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 222	$1.56	0.4%	35	53.2	0.66×
Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 23	$1.40	3.8%	500	515.3	0.97×
Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 156	$1.34	0.5%	39	75.6	0.52×
USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 61	$1.25	1.3%	104	192.6	0.54×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 92	$1.21	0.8%	73	128.8	0.57×
G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 20	$1.00	3.1%	622	588.6	1.06×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 61	$0.91	0.9%	108	192.6	0.56×
USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 35	$0.83	1.5%	203	341.6	0.59×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 53	$0.82	1.0%	112	223.4	0.50×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 18	$0.77	2.6%	614	653.6	0.94×
Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 69	$0.74	0.7%	83	171.4	0.48×
Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 65	$0.71	0.7%	107	183.2	0.58×
Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 63	$0.69	0.7%	96	189.1	0.51×
Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 66	$0.66	0.6%	91	178.5	0.51×
Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 58	$0.66	0.7%	108	203.3	0.53×
Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 58	$0.66	0.7%	131	203.3	0.64×
Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 57	$0.65	0.7%	124	205.7	0.60×
SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 17	$0.63	2.3%	775	709.1	1.09×
MAG-7 \| Resupply (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 16	$0.59	2.2%	769	728.1	1.06×
Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 53	$0.56	0.7%	133	224.6	0.59×
Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 46	$0.51	0.7%	169	256.5	0.66×
Galil AR \| NV (Factory New)weapon · light blue	1 in 15	$0.50	2.0%	821	777.7	1.06×
SG 553 \| Aloha (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 13	$0.33	1.6%	1,019	913.6	1.12×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/sketch, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommonEquis$1.85$1.400.76x1m

G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetEquis$1.85$1.000.54x1m

PP-Bizon | Embargoweapon · violetEquis$1.85$2.101.14x1m

SG 553 | Danger Close (Factory New)weapon · blueEquis$1.85$0.630.34x1m

P250 | Visionsweapon · pinkEquis$1.85$4.142.24x1m

SG 553 | Aloha (Factory New)weapon · blueEquis$1.85$0.330.18x1m

G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetEquis$1.85$1.000.54x1m

Dual Berettas | Angel Eyesweapon · restrictedEquis$1.85$0.640.35x1m

Galil AR | NV (Factory New)weapon · light blueEquis$1.85$0.500.27x1m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$1.85	87.50%	69
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$1.85	87.59%	69
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$1.85	87.15%	69
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$1.85	87.88%	69
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$1.85	87.70%	69
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$1.85	87.61%	69
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$1.85	87.52%	69
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$1.85	87.13%	69
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$1.85	87.38%	69
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$1.85	88.05%	69
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$1.85	87.39%	69
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$1.85	87.71%	69
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$1.85	86.58%	69
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$1.85	87.25%	69
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$1.85	87.58%	69
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$1.85	87.18%	69
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$1.85	88.05%	69

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 0.1%covert 0.0%restricted 19.3%red 0.1%#d32ce6 0.3%Mythical 1.7%Legendary 1.1%industrial 0.1%violet 15.2%pink 2.5%Classified 0.8%rare 0.2%mil spec 2.3%#8847ff 15.7%blue 29.3%uncommon 4.9%light blue 6.6%best hit —