SPORT
A case on Key-Drop (PREMIUM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$1,700.00
Advertised RTP
90.50%
EV $1,538.52 from 24 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.09%
2,272 openings, odds method
Variance
0.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
31.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,272 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/sport, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $1,700 | 90.50% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $1,700 | 90.88% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $1,700 | 90.94% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1,700 | 90.76% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $1,700 | 90.96% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1,700 | 90.80% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $1,700 | 90.98% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $1,700 | 90.87% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $1,700 | 90.85% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $1,700 | 90.72% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $1,700 | 90.87% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $1,700 | 90.73% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $1,700 | 90.82% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1,700 | 90.85% | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $1,700 | 90.78% | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $1,700 | 90.99% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,700 | 90.73% | 24 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 69.4%contraband 0.0%extraordinary 3.0%Covert 5.3%legendary 13.2%classified 5.4%gold 3.7%best hit $8,833 (5.20x)