STRAKA

A case on Key-Drop (FELIPEIRA), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$3.95

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $3.46 from 80 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.73%

4,170 openings, odds method

Variance

4.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

98.17%±18.85441 openings

7 days

83.69%±6.663,609 openings

30 days

83.73%±6.214,170 openings

since tracking started

83.73%±6.214,170 openings

76.5%97.0%117.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	441	98.17%±18.9	+1.1σ	odds
7d	3,609	83.69%±6.66	−1.1σ	odds
30d	4,170	83.73%±6.21	−1.2σ	odds
All	4,170	83.73%±6.21	−1.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values80 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,175 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$418	1.2%	1	0.4	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$313	1.8%	1	0.8	—
★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$158	1.4%	0	1.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$104	1.5%	1	2.1	0.48×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$53.21	0.8%	1	2.1	0.48×
★ Survival Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 1,250	$51.91	1.2%	2	3.3	0.60×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$41.37	0.7%	4	2.5	1.60×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 10,000	$40.27	0.1%	0	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 5,000	$37.60	0.2%	1	0.8	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$35.74	0.1%	0	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 5,000	$35.42	0.2%	0	0.8	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 5,000	$32.83	0.2%	1	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 10,000	$30.98	0.1%	0	0.4	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$23.44	0.2%	1	1.3	0.80×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 3,333	$22.91	0.2%	1	1.3	0.80×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 3,333	$22.71	0.2%	0	1.3	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$18.32	0.2%	1	1.7	0.60×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 3,333	$17.55	0.2%	0	1.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 5,000	$16.70	0.1%	1	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 57	$12.97	6.6%	35	73.1	0.48×
P250 \| Kintsugi (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 114	$12.18	3.1%	16	36.7	0.44×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 39	$10.65	8.0%	47	108.1	0.43×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 167	$9.69	1.7%	13	25.1	0.52×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 67	$9.64	4.2%	23	62.2	0.37×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 172	$8.79	1.5%	18	24.2	0.74×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 143	$8.68	1.8%	13	29.2	0.44×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 133	$8.40	1.8%	17	31.3	0.54×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 130	$8.29	1.8%	13	32.1	0.40×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 105	$7.69	2.1%	22	39.7	0.55×
P250 \| Kintsugi (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 145	$7.33	1.5%	15	28.8	0.52×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 182	$6.69	1.1%	6	23.0	0.26×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 100	$6.65	1.9%	24	41.8	0.57×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 74	$6.43	2.5%	27	56.8	0.48×
P250 \| Kintsugi (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 105	$6.25	1.7%	19	39.7	0.48×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 152	$5.95	1.1%	11	27.6	0.40×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 84	$5.84	2.0%	22	49.7	0.44×
P250 \| Kintsugi (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 61	$4.76	2.2%	50	68.1	0.73×
XM1014 \| Entombed (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 92	$4.67	1.5%	21	45.5	0.46×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 43	$4.37	2.9%	61	96.4	0.63×
XM1014 \| Entombed (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 79	$4.32	1.6%	34	53.0	0.64×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 79	$4.27	1.6%	33	53.0	0.62×
XM1014 \| Entombed (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 76	$4.26	1.6%	29	54.7	0.53×
XM1014 \| Entombed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 76	$4.24	1.6%	19	55.1	0.34×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 71	$4.15	1.7%	45	58.9	0.76×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 65	$3.97	1.8%	146	64.3	2.27×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 65	$3.96	1.8%	96	64.7	1.48×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 15	$3.87	7.6%	67	281.8	0.24×
AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 21	$3.71	5.0%	100	195.4	0.51×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 13	$3.61	8.1%	125	324.4	0.39×
UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 2,500	$2.82	0.0%	2	1.7	1.20×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 81	$2.74	1.0%	39	51.8	0.75×
AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 196	$2.54	0.4%	13	21.3	0.61×
AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 189	$2.48	0.4%	16	22.1	0.72×
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 185	$2.45	0.4%	9	22.5	0.40×
MAC-10 \| Derailment (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 95	$2.11	0.6%	24	43.8	0.55×
MAC-10 \| Derailment (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 90	$2.04	0.7%	24	46.3	0.52×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 769	$1.40	0.1%	2	5.4	0.37×
P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 476	$0.85	0.1%	5	8.8	0.57×
UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 370	$0.80	0.1%	3	11.3	0.27×
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 400	$0.70	0.1%	5	10.4	0.48×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 303	$0.68	0.1%	7	13.8	0.51×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 189	$0.57	0.1%	15	22.1	0.68×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 196	$0.51	0.1%	13	21.3	0.61×
P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 189	$0.47	0.1%	13	22.1	0.59×
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 145	$0.37	0.1%	23	28.8	0.80×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 68	$0.30	0.1%	36	61.4	0.59×
UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 55	$0.24	0.1%	43	76.4	0.56×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Field-Tested)weapon · common	1 in 38	$0.21	0.2%	53	108.5	0.49×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 47	$0.21	0.1%	59	88.5	0.67×
UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 41	$0.20	0.1%	49	101.9	0.48×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 36	$0.20	0.2%	69	117.3	0.59×
P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 48	$0.20	0.1%	51	87.3	0.58×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 44	$0.20	0.1%	48	95.6	0.50×
P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 40	$0.18	0.1%	51	103.1	0.49×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 34	$0.17	0.1%	66	124.4	0.53×
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 38	$0.16	0.1%	70	110.2	0.64×
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 34	$0.15	0.1%	55	121.9	0.45×
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 34	$0.15	0.1%	69	121.9	0.57×
UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 23	$0.14	0.2%	69	180.8	0.38×
P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 27	$0.14	0.1%	86	154.1	0.56×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/straka, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$3.95$428108.3x4d

★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert$3.95$31379.36x8h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

UMP-45 | Late Night Transitweapon · blue79valentino$3.95$0.210.05x42m

Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Loveweapon · pink79valentino$3.95$3.860.98x43m

UMP-45 | Late Night Transitweapon · bluepablogilt012$3.95$0.210.05x48m

USP-S | Jawbreakerweapon · pinksobirzoda.2000$3.95$4.311.09x53m

AWP | PAWweapon · violetARD.RP$3.95$3.400.86x53m

USP-S | Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pinksobirzoda.2000$3.95$3.961.00x54m

AWP | PAW (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalARD.RP$3.95$3.680.93x54m

M4A1-S | Liquidationweapon · restrictedHusarz$3.95$4.261.08x1h

M4A1-S | Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · violetHusarz$3.95$2.770.70x1h

P250 | Kintsugi (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink$3.95$4.701.19x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$3.95	87.50%	80
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$3.95	87.51%	80
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$3.95	87.42%	80
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$3.95	87.44%	80
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$3.95	87.85%	80
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$3.95	87.92%	80
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$3.95	87.30%	80
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$3.95	87.38%	80
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$3.95	87.27%	80
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$3.95	87.71%	80
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$3.95	87.45%	80
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$3.95	87.54%	80
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$3.95	87.37%	80
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$3.95	87.58%	80
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$3.95	87.31%	80
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$3.95	87.32%	80
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$3.95	87.82%	80

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.2%gold 0.1%Ancient 0.0%red 0.1%classified 2.2%pink 36.9%#d32ce6 0.0%violet 4.1%#d32ee6 1.5%restricted 2.8%uncommon 1.2%Legendary 1.1%Mythical 5.2%Rare 4.5%#8847ff 1.6%blue 23.2%#4b69ff 9.6%common 2.6%milspec 2.9%best hit $428 (108.3x)