STRIKE
A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$4.72
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $4.13 from 37 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.57%
2,683 openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.72% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (76.53% – 86.61%, 2,683 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,688 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/strike, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $4.72 | 87.50% | 37 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $4.72 | 87.72% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $4.72 | 87.90% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $4.72 | 87.70% | 37 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $4.72 | 87.68% | 37 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $4.72 | 87.58% | 37 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $4.72 | 87.77% | 37 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $4.72 | 87.80% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $4.72 | 87.84% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $4.72 | 87.76% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $4.72 | 87.73% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $4.72 | 87.82% | 37 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $4.72 | 87.48% | 37 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $4.72 | 87.87% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $4.72 | 87.82% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $4.72 | 87.69% | 37 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.72 | 87.98% | 37 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 0.0%covert 0.1%classified 17.5%Legendary 1.3%pink 25.7%violet 15.5%#d32ee6 2.2%#8847ff 3.5%blue 6.7%gray 13.6%Consumer Grade 9.3%grey 4.6%best hit —