gambatracker
Live
Big wins
The Crypt 2$1,00517.92xMoney Coming 2$1,60332.04xJetX$1,04832.69xSugar Rush 1000$1,12511.25xImmortal$1,59231.78xDragon Hatch 2$1,84222.30xFist of Destruction Megamultiplier$1,338111.3xSpeed Blackjack 6$1,1921.49xWaylanders Forge$2,50225.02xCase Battles$1,0981.83xChests of Cai Shen - Infinity$300219.0xCase Battles$1,3741.59xKeno$1,12056.00xPrivate Jet$105157.7xCrash$1,9781.76xKorean Platinum Private Blackjack 1$10K2.00xEastern Emeralds$57.30101.5xRoyal Masquerade$38.92110.8xKeno$12.2K81.50xBlackjack$4,0002.00xAnts Attack$160133.5xSpanish Roulette$9,0096.77xDice$2,8162.00xCase Battles$6,6286.14x

THUNDER

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price
$15.79
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $13.82 from 64 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.92%
1,979 openings, odds method
Variance
2.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
61.6%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
80.89%±20.80183 openings
7 days
87.96%±6.951,762 openings
30 days
87.92%±6.561,979 openings
since tracking started
87.92%±6.561,979 openings
59.5%81.0%102.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h18380.89%±20.8−0.6σodds
7d1,76287.96%±6.95+0.1σodds
30d1,97987.92%±6.56+0.1σodds
All1,97987.92%±6.56+0.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values64 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,979 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 10,000$1,3191.0%00.2—
★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 11 in 10,000$6260.5%00.2—
AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 5,000$6090.9%00.4—
M4A1-S | Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 1,111$1471.0%41.82.25×
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$1451.0%62.03.03×
M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 2,500$75.120.2%20.8—
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 1,111$72.600.5%01.80.00×
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$71.390.5%22.01.01×
AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 2,000$70.800.3%31.0—
M4A1-S | Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 2,000$70.600.3%01.0—
M4A1-S | Player Two (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 1,667$64.850.3%11.20.84×
M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 1,667$64.310.3%01.20.00×
AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 90$54.814.4%2822.01.27×
AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 250$54.241.6%117.91.39×
AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 238$53.211.6%88.30.96×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 83$50.224.4%2123.90.88×
AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 208$42.181.5%109.51.05×
AWP | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 204$41.681.5%139.71.34×
AK-47 | The Oligarch (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 156$41.561.9%1412.71.11×
AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 200$41.371.5%79.90.71×
USP-S | Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 36$35.747.1%2454.20.44×
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified1 in 74$32.893.2%1926.70.71×
AK-47 | The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare1 in 23$31.7910.1%5187.30.58×
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 39$23.964.4%2550.30.50×
USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 25$23.446.8%5579.20.69×
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 85$23.312.0%1923.40.81×
Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 14$21.4111.2%126143.30.88×
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 47$20.753.2%3442.00.81×
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 45$20.243.3%3444.10.77×
SSG 08 | Big Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 34$18.323.9%3057.80.52×
AWP | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon1 in 59$16.852.1%2133.40.63×
M4A4 | Spider Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 196$15.570.6%1410.11.39×
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 156$15.310.7%2412.71.89×
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 154$15.280.7%1512.91.17×
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 147$14.830.7%613.50.45×
M4A4 | Polysoup (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon1 in 233$14.650.5%68.50.71×
MP7 | Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 345$14.590.3%45.70.70×
M4A4 | Polysoup (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 154$11.300.5%812.90.62×
M4A4 | Polysoup (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 127$9.940.6%915.60.58×
M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 141$9.690.5%814.10.57×
SSG 08 | Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee61 in 49$9.641.4%3040.80.74×
AWP | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 85$8.790.7%1223.20.52×
MP7 | Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon1 in 130$7.890.4%1515.20.98×
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified1 in 161$7.850.4%712.30.57×
M4A4 | Spider Lily (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 97$7.690.6%1920.40.93×
M4A4 | Polysoup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 80$7.480.7%1824.70.73×
AWP | Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon1 in 55$6.650.9%2336.00.64×
M4A4 | Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 73$6.430.6%1727.10.63×
MP7 | Smoking Kills (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon1 in 78$5.710.5%1325.50.51×
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 85$5.270.4%1723.20.73×
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 22$5.251.7%8689.50.96×
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified1 in 79$5.040.5%1924.90.76×
MP7 | Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon1 in 57$4.700.6%2634.80.75×
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 70$4.680.5%2228.10.78×
Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 185$3.130.1%1910.71.78×
USP-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 156$2.880.1%512.70.39×
Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 69$1.680.2%1828.70.63×
USP-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 39$1.210.2%4351.10.84×
Glock-18 | Moonrise (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 38$1.150.2%3352.40.63×
Glock-18 | Moonrise (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Restricted1 in 33$1.060.2%4459.80.74×
Glock-18 | Moonrise (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 33$1.050.2%3860.80.63×
M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet12.1%$1.010.9%242240.31.01×
USP-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 25$0.910.3%5080.50.62×
USP-S | Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue1 in 22$0.820.3%7791.60.84×
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/thunder, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedrezende2.0$15.79$21.411.36x
M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet$15.79$1.000.06x
USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$15.79$22.181.40x
M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet$15.79$1.000.06x
M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet$15.79$1.000.06x
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Well-Worn)weapon · pink$15.79$5.320.34x
USP-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specrezende2.0$15.79$1.230.08x
Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedrezende2.0$15.79$20.451.30x
M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet$15.79$1.000.06x
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$15.79$19.601.24x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC$15.7987.50%64
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC$15.7987.41%64
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC$15.7987.46%64
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC$15.7987.44%64
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC$15.7987.81%64
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC$15.7987.69%64
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC$15.7987.40%64
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC$15.7987.46%64
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC$15.7987.17%64
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC$15.7987.65%64
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC$15.7987.64%64
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC$15.7987.16%64
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC$15.7987.86%64
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC$15.7987.45%64
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC$15.7987.46%64
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC$15.7987.12%64
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC$15.7987.58%64
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$15.7987.63%64
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.7%gold 0.0%classified 27.0%red 1.1%Classified 3.2%rare 4.4%uncommon 7.8%Mythical 2.6%Legendary 1.7%violet 14.9%#d32ee6 2.1%pink 6.9%restricted 2.9%blue 9.3%mil spec 2.6%#8847ff 5.7%Restricted 3.0%best hit —