TOKEN
A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$2.75
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $2.41 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
74.27%
29.7K openings, odds method
Variance
157.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 120
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 29.7K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3 | 1 in 4,348 | $2,118 | 20.2% | 3 | 6.8 | 0.44× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4 | 1 in 412 | $193 | 19.5% | 65 | 72.2 | 0.90× |
| AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 177 | $82.85 | 19.4% | 180 | 167.5 | 1.07× |
| AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 94 | $43.82 | 19.4% | 282 | 316.6 | 0.89× |
| M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 74 | $34.71 | 19.4% | 356 | 400.0 | 0.89× |
| SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 96.8% | $0.05 | 2.0% | 28,812 | 28734.9 | 1.00× |
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/token, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $2.75 | 87.50% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $2.75 | 86.81% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $2.75 | 86.93% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $2.75 | 87.12% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $2.75 | 88.35% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.75 | 84.72% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $2.75 | 84.15% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $2.75 | 84.74% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $2.75 | 86.80% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $2.75 | 87.42% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $2.75 | 87.04% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $2.75 | 87.82% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $2.75 | 88.34% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $2.75 | 88.42% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $2.75 | 87.64% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $2.75 | 87.48% | 6 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.75 | 88.90% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.9%classified 1.3%blue 96.8%best hit $2,288 (831.9x)