TOOTH

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$8.18

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $7.16 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d

94.39%

2,777 openings, odds method

Variance

3.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

96.76%±24.01239 openings

7 days

95.97%±7.722,432 openings

30 days

94.39%±7.212,777 openings

since tracking started

94.39%±7.212,777 openings

72.0%96.8%121.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	239	96.76%±24.0	+0.8σ	odds
7d	2,432	95.97%±7.72	+2.1σ	odds
30d	2,777	94.39%±7.21	+1.9σ	odds
All	2,777	94.39%±7.21	+1.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,782 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,109	1.5%	2	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$219	1.5%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,667	$170	1.4%	1	1.7	0.60×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,667	$170	1.4%	1	1.7	0.60×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$144	1.4%	2	1.9	1.03×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,111	$122	1.5%	3	2.5	1.20×
★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 769	$80.48	1.5%	0	3.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 625	$64.31	1.4%	5	4.5	1.12×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$60.91	0.6%	4	1.9	2.05×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 417	$43.82	1.5%	12	6.7	1.80×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 667	$41.10	0.9%	5	4.2	1.20×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 37	$15.48	5.8%	43	74.3	0.58×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 32	$14.28	6.2%	50	86.2	0.58×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 32	$14.20	6.2%	65	87.4	0.74×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 28	$13.48	6.6%	67	97.9	0.68×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$11.25	6.2%	62	109.9	0.56×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 36	$9.66	3.8%	60	78.2	0.77×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 19	$9.64	7.2%	118	149.7	0.79×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 18	$9.44	7.4%	138	156.1	0.88×
R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 15	$7.76	7.2%	201	184.4	1.09×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 81	$6.69	1.1%	21	34.2	0.61×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 55	$6.59	1.7%	36	50.4	0.71×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 55	$6.54	1.7%	44	50.9	0.86×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 51	$6.22	1.7%	34	54.5	0.62×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 47	$4.55	1.3%	38	58.7	0.65×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 47	$4.51	1.3%	47	59.5	0.79×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 46	$4.44	1.4%	46	60.9	0.76×
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 37	$4.18	1.6%	63	74.6	0.84×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 27	$4.15	2.1%	90	102.7	0.88×
USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 37	$4.14	1.6%	49	75.4	0.65×
USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 36	$4.08	1.6%	50	77.1	0.65×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 21	$3.44	2.3%	101	133.5	0.76×
Souvenir M249 \| Humidor (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · blue	10.1%	$2.39	3.4%	299	282.1	1.06×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · blue	10.3%	$2.30	3.3%	274	286.5	0.96×
Sticker \| Cedar Creeksticker · violet	11.7%	$1.56	2.6%	323	326.6	0.99×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/tooth, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertSmoKey$8.18$1,123137.3x3d

★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertSmoKey$8.18$1,116136.4x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SSG 08 | Big Ironweapon · classifieddenis$8.18$9.991.22x3m

M4A4 | Tooth Fairyweapon · classifiedSÜLEYMAN ÇAKIR$8.18$4.850.59x1h

Souvenir M249 | Humidor (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · blue$8.18$2.390.29x1h

M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendarySÜLEYMAN ÇAKIR$8.18$4.380.54x1h

M4A4 | Tooth Fairyweapon · classifiedpatrick jane$8.18$4.850.59x2h

AK-47 | Phantom Disruptorweapon · pinkpatrick jane$8.18$7.520.92x2h

SSG 08 | Big Ironweapon · classifiedpatrick jane$8.18$9.991.22x2h

P2000 | Wicked Sickweapon · pinkpatrick jane$8.18$3.750.46x2h

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fubar (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · bluepatrick jane$8.18$2.300.28x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$8.18	87.50%	35
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$8.18	87.63%	35
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$8.18	87.51%	35
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$8.18	87.95%	35
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$8.18	87.55%	35
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$8.18	87.42%	35
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$8.18	87.67%	35
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$8.18	87.13%	35
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$8.18	87.84%	35
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$8.18	87.14%	35
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$8.18	87.86%	35
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$8.18	87.49%	35
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$8.18	87.55%	35
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$8.18	87.32%	35
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$8.18	87.29%	35
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$8.18	87.74%	35
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$8.18	87.40%	35

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.1%classified 26.4%pink 24.1%Legendary 5.0%#d32ee6 8.4%Classified 2.8%blue 20.4%violet 11.7%best hit $1,123 (137.3x)