ULTIMATE TRIP

A case on Key-Drop (WILD CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$140.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $122.50 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.66%

7,552 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

28.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

87.90%±4.121,238 openings

7 days

86.01%±1.816,561 openings

30 days

86.66%±1.687,552 openings

since tracking started

86.66%±1.687,552 openings

83.0%87.8%92.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,238	87.90%±4.12	+0.1σ	odds
7d	6,561	86.01%±1.81	−1.9σ	odds
30d	7,552	86.66%±1.68	−1.3σ	odds
All	7,552	86.66%±1.68	−1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,552 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$6,939	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 14,286	$3,645	0.2%	0	0.5	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$2,042	0.2%	0	0.8	—
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,000	$1,685	0.3%	2	1.5	1.32×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$1,328	0.3%	1	2.3	0.44×
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 3,333	$905	0.2%	1	2.3	0.44×
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,000	$651	0.5%	7	7.6	0.93×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 833	$572	0.6%	4	9.1	0.44×
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 120	$544	3.7%	59	62.7	0.94×
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 100	$453	3.7%	84	75.5	1.11×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 87	$393	3.7%	82	86.8	0.94×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald	1 in 75	$302	3.3%	81	100.4	0.81×
SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 29	$270	7.6%	226	259.0	0.87×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald	1 in 44	$231	4.3%	117	172.2	0.68×
MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 19	$176	7.6%	398	397.2	1.00×
P90 \| Run and Hide (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 17	$156	7.6%	489	449.3	1.09×
P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 16	$144	7.6%	486	485.6	1.00×
Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 12	$102	6.9%	594	625.3	0.95×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 12	$94.15	6.6%	616	644.2	0.96×
UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$89.39	6.4%	681	657.8	1.04×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 52	$87.50	1.4%	97	145.8	0.67×
FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 11	$82.70	6.1%	710	678.9	1.05×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 11	$77.09	5.8%	712	697.8	1.02×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 41	$74.49	1.5%	145	182.8	0.79×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 41	$74.47	1.5%	144	182.8	0.79×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 40	$73.13	1.5%	131	188.0	0.70×
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 11	$71.89	5.6%	684	717.4	0.95×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 11	$71.83	5.6%	760	718.2	1.06×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/ultimate-trip, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$140$1,70412.17x6d

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$140$1,69612.11x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$140$1,3989.98x7d

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$140$9066.47x3d

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphirekOUKi-$140$6524.66x7d

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireChapiuski$140$6524.66x7d

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$140$6524.66x7d

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$140$6514.65x5h

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$140$6514.65x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkChnovice$140$1761.26x9m

AK-47 | Nightwishweapon · rednot awp abuser$140$76.830.55x9m

P2000 | Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiednot awp abuser$140$1441.03x12m

P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested)weapon · pinknot awp abuser$140$1561.11x12m

UMP-45 | Crime Scene (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$140$89.390.64x12m

P2000 | Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiednot awp abuser$140$1441.03x12m

UMP-45 | Crime Scene (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictednot awp abuser$140$89.390.64x12m

P2000 | Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$140$1441.03x12m

P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested)weapon · pinknot awp abuser$140$1551.11x12m

★ Shadow Daggers | Night (Well-Worn)knife · covert$140$94.150.67x13m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$140	87.50%	28
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$140	87.89%	28
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$140	87.73%	28
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$140	87.75%	28
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$140	87.97%	28
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$140	87.84%	28
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$140	87.83%	28
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$140	87.89%	28
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$140	87.85%	28
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$140	87.76%	28
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$140	87.92%	28
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$140	88.00%	28
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$140	87.78%	28
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$140	87.80%	28
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$140	87.82%	28
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$140	87.77%	28
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$140	87.93%	28

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 23.8%restricted 8.7%red 29.1%#d32ee6 3.4%pink 11.2%classified 6.4%violet 8.3%blue 9.0%best hit $1,704 (12.17x)