UNBOUND

A case on Key-Drop (HALLOWEEN), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$24.00

Advertised RTP

87.94%

EV $21.10 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.87%

31.2K openings, odds method

Variance

1.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

27.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

85.65%±1.6023.2K openings

30 days

85.87%±1.3831.2K openings

since tracking started

85.87%±1.3831.2K openings

83.5%86.0%88.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.84% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (84.49% – 87.25%, 31,204 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	23.2K	85.65%±1.60	−2.6σ	odds
30d	31.2K	85.87%±1.38	−2.8σ	odds
All	31.2K	85.87%±1.38	−2.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl	1 in 50,000	$3,075	0.3%	0	0.6	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 33,333	$2,008	0.3%	0	0.9	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 20,000	$1,875	0.4%	1	1.6	0.64×
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$621	0.3%	2	3.1	0.64×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 5,000	$346	0.3%	5	6.3	0.80×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$293	0.1%	1	3.1	0.32×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 2,000	$251	0.6%	15	15.7	0.95×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$207	0.1%	1	3.1	0.32×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$201	0.1%	1	3.1	0.32×
★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 189	$170	4.3%	134	166.6	0.80×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 10,000	$160	0.1%	1	3.1	0.32×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 185	$82.30	2.1%	94	169.7	0.55×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 250	$80.76	1.5%	54	125.7	0.43×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 222	$76.13	1.6%	89	141.4	0.63×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 147	$73.32	2.4%	138	213.7	0.65×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 143	$72.45	2.4%	137	220.0	0.62×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 185	$69.67	1.8%	110	169.7	0.65×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 175	$67.73	1.8%	94	179.2	0.52×
USP-S \| Road Rash (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$34.94	13.5%	2,603	2567.9	1.01×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 23	$30.03	6.3%	752	1395.5	0.54×
AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	10.3%	$27.52	13.5%	3,345	3250.0	1.03×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 18	$26.52	7.2%	1,147	1791.6	0.64×
MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$15.12	5.5%	2,515	2413.9	1.04×
M249 \| Contrast Spray (Factory New)weapon · gray	1 in 13	$14.59	5.4%	2,503	2457.9	1.02×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 12	$13.45	5.1%	2,608	2520.8	1.03×
AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 28	$13.41	2.3%	719	1134.7	0.63×
XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 12	$12.08	4.8%	2,651	2646.5	1.00×
G3SG1 \| New Roots (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 12	$11.25	4.6%	2,794	2709.4	1.03×
AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 21	$10.90	2.5%	999	1511.8	0.66×
Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · blue	1 in 11	$10.80	4.5%	2,835	2750.2	1.03×
Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 11	$9.94	4.3%	2,881	2853.9	1.01×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/unbound, 10 Nov, 02:22 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$24.00$1,89578.95x8d

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert$24.00$63426.41x8d

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert$24.00$62125.88x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

G3SG1 | New Roots (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueBanana Leclerc$24.00$11.250.47x1d

Tec-9 | Safety Net (Factory New)weapon · blue$24.00$9.940.41x1d

Souvenir P250 | Black & Tan (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · blue$24.00$10.800.45x1d

StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Skull (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violet$24.00$13.450.56x1d

MP9 | Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$24.00$15.120.63x1d

Tec-9 | Safety Net (Factory New)weapon · blue$24.00$9.940.41x1d

XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · blueBanana Leclerc$24.00$12.080.50x1d

USP-S | Road Rash (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedBanana Leclerc$24.00$34.941.46x1d

Souvenir P250 | Black & Tan (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · blue$24.00$10.800.45x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.94%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$24.00	87.94%	31
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$24.00	87.71%	31
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$24.00	87.69%	31
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$24.00	87.56%	31
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$24.00	87.93%	31
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$24.00	87.82%	31
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$24.00	87.79%	31
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$24.00	87.87%	31
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$24.00	87.91%	31
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$24.00	87.76%	31
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$24.00	87.76%	31
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$24.00	87.92%	31
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$24.00	88.00%	31
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$24.00	87.93%	31
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$24.00	87.80%	31

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%covert 3.0%red 11.7%restricted 8.2%pink 10.3%classified 16.1%gray 7.8%violet 8.0%blue 34.9%best hit $1,895 (78.95x)