VALEK

A case on Key-Drop (FELIPEIRA), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$34.75

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $30.41 from 56 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.28%

820 openings, odds method

Variance

2.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

99 openings · below min

7 days

85.08%±12.48619 openings

30 days

83.28%±10.91820 openings

since tracking started

83.28%±10.91820 openings

34.5%67.3%100.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	99	67.31%±32.0	—	odds
7d	619	85.08%±12.5	−0.4σ	odds
30d	820	83.28%±10.9	−0.8σ	odds
All	820	83.28%±10.9	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values56 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 820 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 33,333	$6,040	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 14,286	$2,204	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 10,000	$1,707	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · legendary · Sapphire	1 in 2,500	$870	1.1%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 2,500	$787	1.0%	2	0.3	—
★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 2,000	$602	1.0%	0	0.4	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · gold · Phase 4	1 in 833	$269	1.1%	1	1.0	—
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 476	$147	1.0%	1	1.7	0.58×
★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 52	$129	8.2%	0	15.9	0.00×
★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 40	$114	9.3%	21	20.3	1.03×
★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 53	$83.22	5.2%	15	15.6	0.96×
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 80	$61.44	2.5%	12	10.2	1.17×
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 70	$57.61	2.7%	11	11.6	0.94×
★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 36	$57.35	5.2%	25	22.6	1.10×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 114	$54.81	1.6%	10	7.2	1.39×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$53.32	1.6%	10	7.6	1.31×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 133	$53.18	1.3%	4	6.1	0.65×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 18	$43.82	8.2%	22	46.8	0.47×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 20	$41.56	7.0%	22	41.9	0.53×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$35.91	4.8%	17	33.3	0.51×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 27	$33.91	4.1%	22	30.4	0.72×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 49	$33.10	2.2%	9	16.8	0.54×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 27	$31.79	3.9%	30	30.6	0.98×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 42	$30.80	2.4%	19	19.4	0.98×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 37	$28.80	2.6%	10	22.1	0.45×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 18	$27.90	5.1%	18	45.3	0.40×
AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 80	$26.52	1.1%	12	10.2	1.17×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 111	$23.67	0.7%	8	7.4	1.08×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 33	$23.00	2.3%	28	24.5	1.14×
AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 60	$22.06	1.2%	10	13.7	0.73×
P250 \| Splash (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 32	$21.63	2.2%	31	25.4	1.22×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 91	$20.76	0.8%	4	9.0	0.44×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 90	$20.63	0.8%	7	9.1	0.77×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 500	$18.41	0.1%	0	1.6	0.00×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 303	$14.87	0.2%	4	2.7	1.48×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 125	$9.03	0.2%	5	6.6	0.76×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 175	$8.56	0.2%	2	4.7	0.43×
USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 122	$8.07	0.2%	3	6.7	0.45×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 95	$7.25	0.3%	4	8.6	0.46×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 101	$6.69	0.2%	7	8.1	0.86×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 93	$5.77	0.2%	7	8.9	0.79×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 58	$5.33	0.3%	10	14.1	0.71×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 57	$5.29	0.3%	6	14.3	0.42×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 53	$5.27	0.3%	11	15.6	0.71×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 51	$4.92	0.3%	3	16.0	0.19×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 44	$4.73	0.4%	19	18.5	1.03×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 44	$4.73	0.4%	16	18.5	0.86×
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 43	$4.18	0.3%	20	19.2	1.04×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 47	$4.15	0.3%	8	17.4	0.46×
USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 42	$4.14	0.3%	23	19.5	1.18×
USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 41	$4.08	0.3%	10	19.9	0.50×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 44	$3.97	0.3%	10	18.7	0.53×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 44	$3.96	0.3%	20	18.8	1.07×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$3.94	0.3%	11	16.3	0.67×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 46	$3.71	0.3%	14	18.0	0.78×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 41	$3.47	0.3%	16	20.1	0.80×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/valek, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rareGIGA$34.75$79923.01x3d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rareGIGA$34.75$78322.53x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Survival Knife | Case Hardenedknife · goldna_ch1lle$34.75$1203.46x2h

USP-S | Cortexweapon · pink✪ Señor Sh4dovV$34.75$4.540.13x5h

AK-47 | The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare$34.75$31.790.91x5h

★ Navaja Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert$34.75$57.351.65x5h

USP-S | Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink$34.75$3.960.11x5h

USP-S | Cortex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified✪ Señor Sh4dovV$34.75$4.140.12x5h

SG 553 | Cyrexweapon · pink4 tabua$34.75$5.350.15x10h

P250 | Splash (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted4 tabua$34.75$21.630.62x10h

★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert???????????????????????? ツ$34.75$83.222.39x12h

AK-47 | Orbit Mk01weapon · violetZimbo489$34.75$32.600.94x13h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$34.75	87.50%	56
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$34.75	87.65%	56
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$34.75	87.59%	56
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$34.75	87.66%	56
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$34.75	87.69%	56
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$34.75	87.91%	56
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$34.75	87.27%	56
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$34.75	87.52%	56
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$34.75	87.99%	56
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$34.75	87.95%	56
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$34.75	87.55%	56
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$34.75	87.31%	56
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$34.75	87.72%	56
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$34.75	87.51%	56
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$34.75	87.66%	56
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$34.75	87.65%	56
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$34.75	87.24%	56

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 0.0%covert 14.7%legendary 0.0%rare 8.4%epic 0.1%gold 2.1%classified 18.4%red 15.1%restricted 17.4%violet 2.7%pink 14.5%Legendary 1.7%Classified 2.4%Mythical 2.5%best hit $799 (23.01x)