VEST

A case on Key-Drop (PREMIUM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$179.68

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $157.22 from 63 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.71%

2,146 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.93%±9.26252 openings

7 days

89.23%±3.551,737 openings

30 days

88.71%±3.202,146 openings

since tracking started

88.71%±3.202,146 openings

80.0%90.0%100.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	252	89.93%±9.26	+0.5σ	odds
7d	1,737	89.23%±3.55	+0.8σ	odds
30d	2,146	88.71%±3.20	+0.6σ	odds
All	2,146	88.71%±3.20	+0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values63 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,146 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 5,000	$2,737	0.3%	0	0.4	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$1,328	0.3%	0	0.9	—
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$1,108	0.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 1,250	$748	0.4%	2	1.7	1.16×
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,250	$702	0.4%	0	1.7	0.00×
★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 1,250	$688	0.3%	3	1.7	1.75×
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 97	$653	4.3%	17	22.1	0.77×
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 90	$609	4.3%	30	23.8	1.26×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 370	$602	1.0%	4	5.8	0.69×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 73	$493	4.3%	33	29.4	1.12×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 118	$411	2.2%	12	18.2	0.66×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 357	$405	0.7%	7	6.0	1.16×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 40	$400	6.3%	61	53.0	1.15×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 92	$365	2.5%	19	23.4	0.81×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 87	$338	2.5%	11	24.7	0.45×
★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 32	$312	6.3%	56	67.8	0.83×
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 92	$263	1.8%	20	23.4	0.86×
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 38	$240	4.0%	51	56.7	0.90×
★ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 35	$224	4.0%	88	60.9	1.44×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 57	$220	2.4%	32	37.6	0.85×
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 62	$216	2.2%	19	34.8	0.55×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 156	$214	0.9%	19	13.7	1.38×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 29	$182	4.0%	86	75.1	1.14×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10	$164	10.0%	158	205.6	0.77×
★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 13	$149	7.0%	89	159.7	0.56×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 26	$147	3.7%	61	83.7	0.73×
★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 91	$136	1.0%	18	23.6	0.76×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 154	$127	0.5%	8	13.9	0.57×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 189	$126	0.4%	8	11.4	0.70×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 63	$119	1.2%	28	34.1	0.82×
★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 95	$118	0.8%	19	22.5	0.84×
★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 69	$115	1.1%	30	31.1	0.96×
USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 250	$114	0.3%	6	8.6	0.70×
★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 88	$112	0.8%	26	24.2	1.07×
★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 63	$109	1.1%	22	33.9	0.65×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 137	$108	0.5%	12	15.7	0.77×
★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 82	$107	0.8%	15	26.2	0.57×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 233	$97.65	0.3%	9	9.2	0.98×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$82.85	0.5%	20	20.0	1.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 75	$81.04	0.7%	12	28.5	0.42×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 99	$79.26	0.5%	11	21.7	0.51×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 74	$73.72	0.6%	23	29.0	0.79×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 63	$72.60	0.7%	28	34.1	0.82×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 61	$71.39	0.7%	24	35.0	0.69×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 75	$70.80	0.6%	22	28.8	0.77×
USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 109	$67.00	0.4%	13	19.7	0.66×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · Covert	1 in 74	$65.92	0.6%	24	29.2	0.82×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 73	$65.58	0.6%	15	29.4	0.51×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 71	$64.91	0.6%	22	30.0	0.73×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 60	$64.31	0.7%	37	36.1	1.03×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 53	$59.97	0.7%	28	40.3	0.69×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 61	$58.32	0.6%	28	35.2	0.80×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 55	$54.51	0.6%	22	39.1	0.56×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 49	$54.24	0.7%	31	44.0	0.70×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 54	$54.15	0.6%	33	39.5	0.84×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 47	$53.21	0.7%	37	45.3	0.82×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 61	$46.68	0.5%	27	35.4	0.76×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 67	$44.98	0.4%	26	32.0	0.81×
USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 53	$42.84	0.5%	36	40.6	0.89×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 55	$39.59	0.5%	25	39.1	0.64×
USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 47	$39.44	0.5%	30	46.1	0.65×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 53	$38.61	0.5%	23	40.8	0.56×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 54	$37.58	0.4%	24	39.9	0.60×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/vest, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold$180$7624.24x5d

★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold$180$7514.18x2d

★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic$180$6953.87x5d

★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epicarthur$180$6933.86x18h

M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified123$180$6703.73x5d

M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classifiedTobias$180$6533.64x4d

M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified$180$6533.64x4d

M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classifiedTobias$180$6533.64x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1CODE TOROCHO$180$4002.23x7m

AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$180$53.510.30x9m

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1CODE TOROCHO$180$3952.20x9m

M4A4 | In Living Colorweapon · redPolesz$180$43.240.24x21m

AUG | Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$180$3652.03x22m

M4A4 | In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · AncientPolesz$180$39.490.22x22m

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1Death13$180$4002.23x28m

★ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epicDeath13$180$3121.74x28m

★ Gut Knife | Autotronicknife · rareDeath13$180$1180.66x28m

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1Death13$180$3952.20x31m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$180	87.50%	63
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$180	87.83%	63
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$180	87.72%	63
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$180	87.96%	63
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$180	87.80%	63
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$180	87.67%	63
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$180	87.58%	63
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$180	87.82%	63
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$180	87.78%	63
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$180	87.88%	63
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$180	87.72%	63
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$180	87.65%	63
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$180	87.72%	63
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$180	87.72%	63
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$180	87.89%	63
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$180	87.71%	63
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$180	87.88%	63

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 74.3%gold 2.4%epic 3.2%classified 3.9%rare 2.6%extraordinary 3.5%red 3.2%Covert 1.4%Ancient 5.5%best hit $762 (4.24x)