Kalashnikov

A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$421.16
602 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
77.80%
197 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
8 openings · below min
7 days
141 openings · below min
30 days
197 openings · below min
since tracking started
197 openings · below min
1.5%51.7%102.0%

Small sample. 197 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h842.93%±40.7—sample
7d14180.63%±20.8—sample
30d19777.80%±17.4—sample
All19777.80%±17.4—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogRain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$421602 coins$2,6393,770 coins6.27x
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$421602 coins$2,5023,574 coins5.94x
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$421602 coins$2,5023,574 coins5.94x
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$421602 coins$2,5023,574 coins5.94x
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert$421602 coins$2,3193,313 coins5.51x
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert$421602 coins$2,3193,313 coins5.51x
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert$421602 coins$2,3193,313 coins5.51x
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert$421602 coins$2,3193,313 coins5.51x
AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classified$421602 coins$1,5562,223 coins3.70x

Latest dropsnewest first

AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$421602 coins$70.80101 coins0.17x
AK-47 | Uncharted (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$421602 coins$0.290.42 coins0.00x
AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)weapon · covert$421602 coins$650928 coins1.54x
AK-47 | Uncharted (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$421602 coins$0.290.42 coins0.00x
AK-47 | Uncharted (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$421602 coins$0.290.42 coins0.00x
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$421602 coins$472675 coins1.12x
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$421602 coins$70.80101 coins0.17x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $2,639 (6.27x)