Marble
A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$429.45
614 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
121.83%
169 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 169 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and valuesnone published
No catalogRain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.
Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · coverttwitch.tv/MrBarnee$429614 coins$10.9K15,637 coins25.49x
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$429614 coins$3,8655,521 coins9.00x
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$429614 coins$3,8655,521 coins9.00x
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$429614 coins$3,8655,521 coins9.00x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$429614 coins$1,8012,574 coins4.19x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$429614 coins$1,8012,574 coins4.19x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, daily
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedbest hit $10.9K (25.49x)