Recon

A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$3.30
4.71 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
87.45%
5,762 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
391 openings · below min
7 days
84.58%±6.884,221 openings
30 days
87.45%±6.635,762 openings
since tracking started
87.45%±6.635,762 openings
67.5%89.5%111.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h39189.62%±21.4—sample
7d4,22184.58%±6.88—sample
30d5,76287.45%±6.63—sample
All5,76287.45%±6.63—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogRain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Silk Tiger (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6$3.304.71 coins$216308 coins65.37x
AWP | Silk Tiger (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6$3.304.71 coins$216308 coins65.37x

Latest dropsnewest first

AWP | Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified$3.304.71 coins$29.2041.71 coins8.86x
AWP | Capillary (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$3.304.71 coins$0.140.2 coins0.04x
AWP | Capillary (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ffJAZ$3.304.71 coins$0.140.2 coins0.04x
AWP | Capillary (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$3.304.71 coins$0.140.2 coins0.04x
AWP | Acheron (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare$3.304.71 coins$0.560.8 coins0.17x
AWP | Acheron (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare$3.304.71 coins$0.560.8 coins0.17x
AWP | Capillary (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$3.304.71 coins$0.140.2 coins0.04x
SSG 08 | Prey (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$3.304.71 coins$0.320.45 coins0.10x
AWP | Acheron (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rareamex-a18fa3$3.304.71 coins$0.560.8 coins0.17x
AWP | Capillary (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$3.304.71 coins$0.140.2 coins0.04x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $216 (65.37x)