AWP

A case on Skin.club (By type), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$3.53

Advertised RTP

92.50%

EV $3.27 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.09%

52.1K openings, odds method

Variance

7.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 16

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

91.25%±6.696,253 openings

7 days

91.76%±2.6341.3K openings

30 days

92.09%±2.3452.1K openings

since tracking started

92.09%±2.3452.1K openings

84.0%91.3%98.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6,253	91.25%±6.69	−0.3σ	odds
7d	41.3K	91.76%±2.63	−0.5σ	odds
30d	52.1K	92.09%±2.34	−0.3σ	odds
All	52.1K	92.09%±2.34	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 52.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$222	1.4%	5	10.4	0.48×
StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 4,000	$195	1.5%	11	13.0	0.84×
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$171	1.6%	16	15.7	1.02×
AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,857	$128	1.4%	15	18.3	0.82×
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$117	1.4%	20	20.9	0.96×
AWP \| CMYK (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 2,500	$113	1.4%	26	20.9	1.25×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$99.99	1.5%	26	26.1	1.00×
AWP \| Snake Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,818	$97.82	1.6%	29	28.7	1.01×
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$86.27	1.6%	37	31.3	1.18×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$71.21	1.7%	36	41.8	0.86×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$63.30	1.6%	37	41.8	0.89×
AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,250	$62.27	1.5%	41	41.8	0.98×
AWP \| LongDog (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 1,176	$54.53	1.4%	51	44.4	1.15×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,111	$50.46	1.4%	47	47.0	1.00×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,053	$45.69	1.3%	48	49.6	0.97×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 833	$37.91	1.4%	62	62.6	0.99×
AWP \| Crakow! (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 714	$37.69	1.6%	53	73.1	0.73×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 667	$36.77	1.7%	83	78.3	1.06×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 625	$34.00	1.7%	90	83.5	1.08×
AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$30.47	1.9%	102	104.4	0.98×
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 333	$26.40	2.4%	163	156.6	1.04×
AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 333	$20.49	1.9%	177	156.6	1.13×
AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 200	$18.01	2.8%	238	261.0	0.91×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$13.57	4.2%	570	522.0	1.09×
AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 100	$13.33	4.1%	539	522.0	1.03×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 59	$10.44	5.4%	928	887.4	1.05×
AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 45	$6.74	4.5%	1,105	1148.4	0.96×
AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 40	$4.86	3.7%	1,436	1305.0	1.10×
AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 33	$4.74	4.4%	1,431	1566.0	0.91×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$4.22	5.2%	2,123	2088.0	1.02×
AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 20	$2.62	4.0%	3,037	2610.0	1.16×
AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 17	$2.60	4.8%	2,599	3131.9	0.83×
AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$2.15	5.3%	4,225	4175.9	1.01×
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 13	$1.99	4.9%	4,158	4175.9	1.00×
AWP \| Acheron (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 13	$1.83	4.5%	4,242	4175.9	1.02×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	11.0%	$0.89	3.0%	5,676	5741.9	0.99×
AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	11.0%	$0.69	2.3%	5,719	5741.9	1.00×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec	12.0%	$0.31	1.1%	6,263	6263.9	1.00×
AWP \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	12.9%	$0.26	1.0%	6,735	6715.4	1.00×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/awp, 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$3.53$23165.43x2d

AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$3.53$23065.13x1d

AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covertANTIN$3.53$23065.12x1d

AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$3.54$22964.59x5d

AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covertSchmidley$3.52$22664.22x20h

AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covertpiyan party$3.52$22363.30x4h

StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary$3.56$20457.43x7d

StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary$3.55$20457.59x7d

AWP | BOOM (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedYwen$3.56$20457.42x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil SpecA silly goose$3.53$0.310.09x1m

AWP | Acheron (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare$3.53$1.840.52x1m

AWP | Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary$3.53$4.741.34x2m

AWP | PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$3.53$2.000.57x2m

AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialAccurxcy$3.53$0.260.07x2m

AWP | Duality (Minimal Wear)weapon · ClassifiedShax$3.53$4.861.38x3m

AWP | PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical✯NEVIDIM✯$3.53$2.000.57x3m

AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industriald1ff1cu1t$3.53$0.260.07x3m

AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedAccurxcy$3.53$0.890.25x3m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 20:47 UTC	$3.53	92.50%	39
11 Nov, 14:43 UTC	$3.52	92.44%	39
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$3.52	92.53%	39
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$3.52	92.62%	39
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$3.52	92.50%	39
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$3.53	92.41%	39
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$3.53	92.51%	39
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$3.53	92.54%	39
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$3.53	92.44%	39
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$3.54	92.41%	39
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$3.53	92.63%	39
9 Nov, 02:03 UTC	$3.55	92.46%	39
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$3.55	92.52%	39
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$3.54	92.60%	39
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$3.55	92.40%	39
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$3.55	92.51%	39
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$3.55	92.45%	39
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$3.54	92.52%	39
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$3.55	92.38%	39
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$3.54	92.54%	39
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$3.54	92.42%	39
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$3.53	92.63%	39
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$3.55	92.56%	39
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$3.54	92.50%	39
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$3.55	92.52%	39
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$3.56	92.46%	39
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$3.54	92.61%	39
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$3.54	92.57%	39
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$3.53	92.46%	39
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$3.54	92.61%	39

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.5%Legendary 3.5%classified 1.7%red 0.0%mil spec 0.1%Ancient 0.2%rare 0.2%restricted 23.1%industrial 13.2%#d32ce6 1.0%Mythical 9.7%violet 2.2%Classified 2.5%#8847ff 5.0%Mil Spec Grade 6.0%Rare 8.0%milspec 11.0%Mil Spec 12.0%best hit $231 (65.43x)