AWP Battle

A case on Skin.club (Battle cases), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$5.40

Advertised RTP

92.46%

EV $4.99 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.61%

106K openings, odds method

Variance

2.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

94.06%±2.8713.4K openings

7 days

92.94%±1.1685.8K openings

30 days

92.61%±1.05106K openings

since tracking started

92.61%±1.05106K openings

90.5%94.0%97.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	13.4K	94.06%±2.87	+1.2σ	odds
7d	85.8K	92.94%±1.16	+0.8σ	odds
30d	106K	92.61%±1.05	+0.3σ	odds
All	106K	92.61%±1.05	+0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 106K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$222	1.3%	30	31.8	0.94×
AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$79.71	1.3%	212	84.7	2.50×
AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$66.35	1.3%	107	105.9	1.01×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 714	$64.28	1.8%	146	148.2	0.99×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$55.97	2.2%	111	211.7	0.52×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$52.74	2.1%	229	211.7	1.08×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$50.21	5.0%	487	529.3	0.92×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 182	$42.90	4.7%	602	582.2	1.03×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 100	$33.17	6.6%	1,874	1058.6	1.77×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 50	$27.03	10.8%	1,286	2117.1	0.61×
AWP \| Acheron (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 14	$8.29	11.6%	7,367	7409.9	0.99×
AWP \| Phobos (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 14	$6.70	9.4%	7,307	7409.9	0.99×
AWP \| PAW (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$6.57	9.2%	7,474	7409.9	1.01×
AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 14	$4.69	6.6%	7,433	7409.9	1.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 14	$3.36	4.7%	7,373	7409.9	1.00×
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 14	$3.29	4.6%	7,272	7409.9	0.98×
AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 14	$3.14	4.4%	7,483	7409.9	1.01×
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 13	$1.98	3.2%	9,586	8468.4	1.13×
AWP \| Acheron (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 11	$1.82	3.3%	8,771	9527.0	0.92×
AWP \| Capillary (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 11	$1.05	1.9%	10,364	9738.7	1.06×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$1.00	2.0%	10,030	10585.5	0.95×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$0.88	1.8%	10,311	10585.5	0.97×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/awp_battle, 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | PAW (Factory New)weapon · restrictedsoul.$5.37$6.801.27x31s

AWP | Phobos (Factory New)weapon · MythicalPigwa_CS2.ME$5.37$6.181.15x31s

AWP | Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedMelodien$5.37$0.990.18x31s

AWP | Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedYK - Mangoss$5.37$0.990.18x31s

AWP | Acheron (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rarestruga_19$5.37$1.820.34x55s

AWP | PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalCaptanMamad$5.37$1.990.37x55s

AWP | Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$5.37$0.990.18x1m

AWP | Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary-HG- TeaM | Mr Meñique$5.37$4.720.88x1m

AWP | Capillary (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare$5.37$1.040.19x1m

AWP | PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical-HG- TeaM | Mr Meñique$5.37$1.990.37x1m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.46%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$5.40	92.46%	22
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$5.37	92.44%	22
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$5.24	92.58%	22
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$5.24	92.50%	22
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$5.23	92.58%	22
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$5.24	92.52%	22
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$5.24	92.47%	22
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$5.28	92.52%	22
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$5.39	92.54%	22
9 Nov, 02:03 UTC	$5.43	92.58%	22
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$5.44	92.42%	22
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$5.42	92.55%	22
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$5.42	92.56%	22
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$5.44	92.45%	22
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$5.45	92.44%	22
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$5.44	92.51%	22
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$5.45	92.48%	22
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$5.44	92.53%	22
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$5.42	92.47%	22
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$5.38	92.56%	22
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$5.41	92.48%	22
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$5.38	92.54%	22
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$5.41	92.56%	22
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$5.43	92.52%	22
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$5.41	92.56%	22
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$5.37	92.49%	22
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$5.35	92.51%	22
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$5.35	92.59%	22
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC	$5.36	92.46%	22
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$5.34	92.52%	22

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.7%classified 0.1%Ancient 1.0%red 2.0%Rare 25.2%Mythical 22.0%restricted 27.0%Legendary 7.0%#8847ff 7.0%pink 7.0%best hit —