Canon Event

A case on Skin.club (Bestseller Cases), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$12.07

Advertised RTP

92.48%

EV $11.16 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.16%

40.3K openings, odds method

Variance

2.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

95.46%±3.815,476 openings

7 days

92.38%±1.7030.1K openings

30 days

92.16%±1.4740.3K openings

since tracking started

92.16%±1.4740.3K openings

90.0%95.0%100.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	5,476	95.46%±3.81	+1.0σ	odds
7d	30.1K	92.38%±1.70	−0.6σ	odds
30d	40.3K	92.16%±1.47	−0.8σ	odds
All	40.3K	92.16%±1.47	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · Immortal · Phase 3	1 in 20,000	$381	0.2%	10	2.0	4.94×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · Immortal · Phase 3	1 in 16,667	$352	0.2%	14	2.4	5.77×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 12,500	$344	0.2%	10	3.2	3.09×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 7,692	$253	0.3%	38	5.3	7.23×
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,846	$213	0.5%	17	10.5	1.62×
★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,564	$175	0.6%	40	15.8	2.54×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 662	$105	1.4%	840	61.1	13.75×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 211	$92.66	3.9%	239	191.8	1.25×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$50.95	9.1%	583	809.1	0.72×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 36	$45.12	11.3%	1,837	1132.8	1.62×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 27	$40.72	13.5%	1,754	1496.9	1.17×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 27	$36.63	12.1%	1,966	1496.9	1.31×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 26	$27.41	9.6%	1,946	1577.8	1.23×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 20	$21.43	9.4%	2,338	1982.3	1.18×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$19.67	8.6%	2,361	1982.3	1.19×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 20	$13.45	6.0%	2,319	2022.8	1.15×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	10.8%	$3.82	3.7%	4,383	4369.2	1.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Legendary	12.0%	$3.42	3.7%	4,311	4854.7	0.89×
Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	13.5%	$2.86	3.5%	4,940	5461.6	0.90×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	14.7%	$1.03	1.4%	5,233	5947.0	0.88×
Glock-18 \| Teal Graf (Factory New)weapon · Rare	17.4%	$0.46	0.7%	5,277	7030.4	0.75×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/canon-event, 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted给你一拳$12.07$27.352.27x2m

Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Legendary$12.09$3.400.28x12m

M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryMáx1m0$12.09$3.820.32x12m

Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary$12.09$2.800.23x12m

Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Legendary$12.09$3.400.28x12m

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical$12.09$1.040.09x12m

M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary$12.09$3.820.32x12m

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covertPeterDarker$12.09$1058.66x12m

M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified$12.09$41.783.46x13m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.48%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
12 Nov, 02:51 UTC	$12.07	92.48%	21
11 Nov, 20:47 UTC	$12.09	92.47%	21
11 Nov, 14:43 UTC	$12.02	92.50%	21
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$12.00	92.50%	21
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$16.65	92.51%	21
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$16.62	92.50%	21
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$16.62	92.48%	21
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$16.64	92.51%	21
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$16.69	92.51%	21
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$16.68	92.49%	21
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$16.73	92.50%	21
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$18.21	92.48%	21
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$18.23	92.51%	21
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$18.25	92.48%	21
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$18.25	92.52%	21
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$18.22	92.52%	21
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$18.07	92.49%	21
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$18.16	92.48%	21
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$18.13	92.49%	21
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$18.15	92.48%	21
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$17.94	92.50%	21
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$18.04	92.51%	21
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$17.96	92.48%	21
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$18.01	92.49%	21
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$17.92	92.48%	21
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$17.97	92.51%	21
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$17.86	92.52%	21
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$17.81	92.52%	21
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$17.86	92.49%	21
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC	$17.80	92.51%	21

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedImmortal 0.0%covert 8.7%classified 8.6%gold 0.5%restricted 3.9%Legendary 46.2%Mythical 14.7%Rare 17.4%best hit —