Classified

A case on Skin.club (By quality), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$1.96

Advertised RTP

92.33%

EV $1.81 from 74 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.67%

204K openings, odds method

Variance

7.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

96.15%±3.4524.9K openings

7 days

92.63%±1.36161K openings

30 days

92.67%±1.21204K openings

since tracking started

92.67%±1.21204K openings

90.5%95.5%100.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	24.9K	96.15%±3.45	+2.5σ	odds
7d	161K	92.63%±1.36	+0.2σ	odds
30d	204K	92.67%±1.21	+0.4σ	odds
All	204K	92.67%±1.21	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values74 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 204K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$301	0.8%	10	10.2	0.98×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$222	0.6%	19	10.2	1.86×
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 20,000	$175	0.5%	11	10.2	1.08×
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$168	0.5%	15	10.2	1.47×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$153	0.8%	14	20.4	0.69×
AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 10,000	$147	0.8%	16	20.4	0.78×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$134	0.7%	24	20.4	1.18×
FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 10,000	$131	0.7%	36	20.4	1.76×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$72.10	0.4%	28	20.4	1.37×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$57.17	0.3%	28	20.4	1.37×
AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$55.24	0.6%	45	40.8	1.10×
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$52.49	0.6%	42	40.8	1.03×
USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$52.31	0.6%	41	40.8	1.00×
USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$48.14	0.5%	24	40.8	0.59×
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$42.41	0.5%	37	40.8	0.91×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$33.93	0.4%	29	40.8	0.71×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 5,000	$31.86	0.4%	47	40.8	1.15×
AUG \| Momentum (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$31.05	0.3%	39	40.8	0.96×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$30.99	0.3%	43	40.8	1.05×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 5,000	$30.83	0.3%	38	40.8	0.93×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$28.48	0.3%	50	40.8	1.23×
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$27.83	0.3%	71	40.8	1.74×
MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$27.39	0.3%	48	40.8	1.18×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$27.26	0.3%	66	40.8	1.62×
MP9 \| Latte Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 5,000	$26.97	0.3%	71	40.8	1.74×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 5,000	$26.57	0.3%	39	40.8	0.96×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 5,000	$22.47	0.2%	33	40.8	0.81×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 3,333	$21.88	0.4%	66	61.2	1.08×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 5,000	$21.43	0.2%	90	40.8	2.21×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 2,000	$21.37	0.6%	77	102.0	0.75×
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$21.01	0.6%	74	102.0	0.73×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,000	$20.75	0.6%	70	102.0	0.69×
PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$19.99	0.6%	57	102.0	0.56×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$19.67	0.5%	72	102.0	0.71×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$13.71	0.4%	94	102.0	0.92×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,000	$13.45	0.4%	99	102.0	0.97×
AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 2,000	$13.36	0.4%	102	102.0	1.00×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,000	$13.14	0.4%	125	102.0	1.23×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$13.11	0.4%	96	102.0	0.94×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$13.07	0.4%	105	102.0	1.03×
UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,000	$12.89	0.4%	97	102.0	0.95×
Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$12.78	0.4%	109	102.0	1.07×
AWP \| Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,000	$12.76	0.4%	125	102.0	1.23×
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,429	$12.62	0.5%	128	142.8	0.90×
P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$12.57	0.3%	124	102.0	1.22×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,429	$12.53	0.5%	157	142.8	1.10×
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,429	$12.49	0.5%	120	142.8	0.84×
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,429	$12.40	0.5%	120	142.8	0.84×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,429	$11.13	0.4%	219	142.8	1.53×
P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,429	$10.94	0.4%	173	142.8	1.21×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 1,429	$9.96	0.4%	128	142.8	0.90×
AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,429	$9.74	0.4%	117	142.8	0.82×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$9.04	0.5%	168	204.1	0.82×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 1,000	$8.45	0.5%	306	204.1	1.50×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 1,000	$7.88	0.4%	209	204.1	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 1,000	$7.72	0.4%	175	204.1	0.86×
Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$7.19	0.8%	671	408.1	1.64×
USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 833	$7.12	0.5%	688	244.9	2.81×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 333	$6.45	1.1%	452	612.2	0.74×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 500	$6.33	0.7%	1,330	408.1	3.26×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 250	$5.98	1.3%	830	816.3	1.02×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 250	$5.87	1.3%	1,450	816.3	1.78×
Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 250	$5.74	1.3%	2,040	816.3	2.50×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 250	$5.71	1.3%	1,739	816.3	2.13×
XM1014 \| XOXO (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$5.19	2.9%	2,483	2040.6	1.22×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 250	$5.10	1.1%	5,830	816.3	7.14×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 100	$4.90	2.7%	4,568	2040.6	2.24×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 50	$4.33	4.8%	4,938	4081.3	1.21×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$4.29	2.4%	3,278	2040.6	1.61×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$4.16	9.2%	10,616	8162.5	1.30×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$3.94	13.1%	4,313	12243.8	0.35×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 13	$3.83	16.9%	7,682	16325.0	0.47×
P250 \| Franklin (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$3.82	10.6%	9,977	10203.2	0.98×
Sealed Graffiti \| GGEZ (War Pig Pink)graffiti · Common	67.0%	$0.08	3.0%	136,612	136722.2	1.00×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/classified, 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classifiedPxil$2.12$323152.6x7d

USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classifiedPxil$2.10$323154.0x7d

USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classified$2.12$317149.6x5d

USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classifiedseba$2.14$309144.4x4d

USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classified𝑫𝑰𝑨𝑩𝑳𝑶 𝑺.$2.14$308144.0x4d

USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classifiedNacho$2.15$307142.8x3d

USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classified$2.13$305143.3x2d

USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classifiedFatMan$1.91$305159.6x2d

USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classified$1.91$305159.6x2d

USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classifiedM4ttyyyyy$2.14$305142.4x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sealed Graffiti | GGEZ (War Pig Pink)graffiti · Common$1.96$0.080.04x1m

Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary$1.96$3.831.95x1m

Sealed Graffiti | GGEZ (War Pig Pink)graffiti · Common$1.96$0.080.04x1m

Sealed Graffiti | GGEZ (War Pig Pink)graffiti · Commonedi.bokser$1.96$0.080.04x1m

Sealed Graffiti | GGEZ (War Pig Pink)graffiti · Common$1.96$0.080.04x1m

P90 | Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$1.96$3.952.02x1m

Sealed Graffiti | GGEZ (War Pig Pink)graffiti · Commonedi.bokser$1.96$0.080.04x1m

Sealed Graffiti | GGEZ (War Pig Pink)graffiti · Common$1.96$0.080.04x1m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.33%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
12 Nov, 02:51 UTC	$1.96	92.33%	74
11 Nov, 20:47 UTC	$1.95	92.67%	74
11 Nov, 14:43 UTC	$1.91	92.42%	74
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$1.90	92.48%	74
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$1.90	92.54%	74
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$1.90	92.30%	74
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$1.90	92.45%	74
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$1.91	92.37%	74
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$1.91	92.39%	74
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$1.91	92.50%	74
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$1.92	92.41%	74
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$2.13	92.48%	74
9 Nov, 02:03 UTC	$2.14	92.61%	74
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$2.14	92.67%	74
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$2.14	92.60%	74
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$2.14	92.56%	74
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$2.14	92.37%	74
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$2.15	92.47%	74
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$2.15	92.35%	74
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$2.15	92.61%	74
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$2.14	92.71%	74
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$2.14	92.52%	74
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$2.13	92.67%	74
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$2.12	92.62%	74
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$2.11	92.47%	74
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$2.12	92.40%	74
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$2.12	92.47%	74
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$2.11	92.64%	74
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$2.11	92.40%	74
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$2.10	92.66%	74

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 19.7%pink 1.1%Legendary 11.7%Classified 0.0%#d32ce6 0.1%#d32ee6 0.4%Common 67.0%best hit $323 (152.6x)