CS 1.6 Memories

A case on Skin.club (Karrigan's Choice), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$2.37

Advertised RTP

92.59%

EV $2.19 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.22%

52.1K openings, odds method

Variance

20.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 56

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85.57%±13.734,136 openings

7 days

93.53%±3.3138.8K openings

30 days

93.22%±2.6152.1K openings

since tracking started

93.22%±2.6152.1K openings

71.0%85.5%100.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4,136	85.57%±13.7	−1.0σ	odds
7d	38.8K	93.53%±3.31	+0.6σ	odds
30d	52.1K	93.22%±2.61	+0.5σ	odds
All	52.1K	93.22%±2.61	+0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 52.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves \| Sunburst (Minimal Wear)gloves · Immortal	1 in 3,333	$329	4.5%	10	15.7	0.64×
★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$152	3.5%	6	26.1	0.23×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,250	$113	4.1%	18	41.8	0.43×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$111	5.1%	22	52.2	0.42×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 833	$110	6.0%	22	62.7	0.35×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 435	$54.74	5.7%	67	120.1	0.56×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 333	$51.06	7.0%	88	156.7	0.56×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 250	$47.05	8.6%	124	208.9	0.59×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 204	$45.67	10.2%	137	255.9	0.54×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 114	$16.53	6.6%	809	459.5	1.76×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 63	$4.50	3.3%	3,336	835.5	3.99×
Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 43	$3.02	3.2%	3,483	1211.5	2.87×
MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 34	$2.64	3.5%	3,616	1540.5	2.35×
AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 26	$2.28	3.9%	3,757	1984.4	1.89×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$1.79	4.1%	3,921	2637.2	1.49×
XM1014 \| Charter (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 14	$1.15	3.7%	4,433	3681.6	1.20×
XM1014 \| Charter (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common	11.5%	$0.98	5.1%	5,088	6005.4	0.85×
Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 11	$0.96	3.9%	4,723	4595.4	1.03×
XM1014 \| Charter (Field-Tested)weapon · Common	10.2%	$0.95	4.4%	4,694	5326.5	0.88×
Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	16.4%	$0.42	3.1%	6,033	8538.1	0.71×
Sticker \| Easy For Ricksawsticker · Rare	27.7%	$0.03	0.4%	7,834	14465.2	0.54×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/cs-1-6-memories, 12 Nov, 23:42 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst (Minimal Wear)gloves · Immortal$2.36$348147.6x2d

★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst (Minimal Wear)gloves · ImmortalHerzog$2.36$348147.3x2d

★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst (Minimal Wear)gloves · ImmortalBudLightyear$2.35$346147.3x2d

★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst (Minimal Wear)gloves · ImmortalUsagi in the RabbitHole$2.37$345145.4x3d

★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst (Minimal Wear)gloves · Immortal$2.37$345145.4x3d

★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst (Minimal Wear)gloves · Immortal$2.37$345145.4x5d

★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst (Minimal Wear)gloves · ImmortalDark Knight$2.37$345145.4x5d

★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst (Minimal Wear)gloves · ImmortalTupananchiskama$2.37$345145.4x6d

★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst (Minimal Wear)gloves · Immortal$2.37$344145.0x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

XM1014 | Charter (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common$2.37$0.980.41x2m

Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$2.37$0.420.18x2m

XM1014 | Charter (Field-Tested)weapon · CommonR3N3G4D369**$2.37$0.950.40x2m

Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$2.37$0.960.41x2m

AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedR3N3G4D369**$2.37$2.280.96x2m

Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$2.37$0.420.18x3m

Sticker | Easy For Ricksawsticker · Rare$2.37$0.030.01x3m

Sticker | Easy For Ricksawsticker · RareR3N3G4D369**$2.37$0.030.01x3m

XM1014 | Charter (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common$2.37$0.980.41x3m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.59%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
12 Nov, 08:56 UTC	$2.37	92.59%	21
12 Nov, 02:51 UTC	$2.37	92.69%	21
11 Nov, 20:47 UTC	$2.37	92.57%	21
11 Nov, 14:43 UTC	$2.37	92.41%	21
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$2.37	92.44%	21
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$2.37	92.56%	21
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$2.36	92.41%	21
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$2.36	92.40%	21
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$2.36	92.42%	21
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$2.36	92.48%	21
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$2.35	92.44%	21
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$2.37	92.67%	21
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$2.37	92.69%	21
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$2.37	92.67%	21
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC	$2.37	92.41%	21
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$2.37	92.33%	21
4 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$2.36	92.67%	21
4 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$2.38	92.36%	21
4 Nov, 07:04 UTC	$2.37	92.66%	21
4 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$2.37	92.69%	21
4 Nov, 04:45 UTC	$2.38	92.44%	21
3 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$2.38	92.38%	21
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$2.37	92.69%	21
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$2.37	92.66%	21
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$2.37	92.62%	21
3 Nov, 07:57 UTC	$2.38	92.48%	21
3 Nov, 07:26 UTC	$2.38	92.56%	21
3 Nov, 04:53 UTC	$2.38	92.52%	21
3 Nov, 03:49 UTC	$2.38	92.51%	21
3 Nov, 01:40 UTC	$2.39	92.32%	21

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedImmortal 0.0%covert 1.7%Ancient 0.1%classified 2.5%restricted 11.2%#8847ff 2.9%Common 28.7%Mythical 8.8%violet 16.4%Rare 27.7%best hit $348 (147.6x)