Electric Dreams

A case on Skin.club (Our Special), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$4.47

Advertised RTP

92.49%

EV $4.13 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.99%

36.8K openings, odds method

Variance

3.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

90.19%±5.164,303 openings

7 days

92.29%±1.9630.3K openings

30 days

91.99%±1.7836.8K openings

since tracking started

91.99%±1.7836.8K openings

84.5%90.3%96.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4,303	90.19%±5.16	−0.9σ	odds
7d	30.3K	92.29%±1.96	−0.2σ	odds
30d	36.8K	91.99%±1.78	−0.6σ	odds
All	36.8K	91.99%±1.78	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$232	0.6%	3	3.7	0.81×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 5,000	$137	0.7%	5	7.4	0.68×
AWP \| CMYK (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 5,000	$112	0.5%	7	7.4	0.95×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,667	$87.73	1.3%	24	22.2	1.08×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 1,250	$63.32	1.2%	47	29.5	1.59×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 769	$62.70	2.0%	30	48.0	0.63×
AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 625	$62.10	2.4%	43	59.1	0.73×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 625	$59.96	2.3%	59	59.1	1.00×
USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 625	$54.18	2.1%	54	59.1	0.91×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 625	$48.99	1.9%	57	59.1	0.97×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 526	$46.80	2.2%	90	70.1	1.28×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 400	$43.44	2.6%	92	92.3	1.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 200	$33.17	4.0%	185	184.6	1.00×
AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$30.46	3.7%	175	184.6	0.95×
P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$9.77	4.7%	699	738.3	0.95×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 33	$7.81	5.7%	1,190	1107.5	1.07×
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$5.04	6.1%	2,340	1845.9	1.27×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$4.81	9.3%	2,621	2953.4	0.89×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 13	$4.44	8.6%	2,883	2953.4	0.98×
Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	11.6%	$3.07	8.6%	4,332	4282.4	1.01×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	12.0%	$2.43	7.1%	4,750	4430.0	1.07×
MAC-10 \| Allure (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	14.0%	$2.39	8.1%	4,765	5168.4	0.92×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	16.0%	$2.04	7.9%	5,814	5906.7	0.98×
USP-S \| Torque (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	18.0%	$1.50	6.5%	6,652	6645.1	1.00×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/electric-dreams, 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$4.50$24654.60x5d

M4A1-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$4.53$24554.15x4d

M4A1-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertD3id3$4.53$23752.25x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Torque (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$4.48$1.580.35x5m

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mythicalripkoko$4.48$2.040.46x5m

USP-S | Torque (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$4.48$1.580.35x6m

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary$4.48$4.390.98x6m

USP-S | Torque (Factory New)weapon · mil specripkoko$4.48$1.580.35x6m

MAC-10 | Allure (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$4.48$2.400.54x8m

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · LegendaryLego$4.48$4.390.98x8m

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical$4.48$2.040.46x8m

MAC-10 | Allure (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$4.48$2.400.54x8m

UMP-45 | Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$4.48$4.981.11x8m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.49%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$4.47	92.49%	24
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$4.48	92.45%	24
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$4.46	92.55%	24
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$4.48	92.53%	24
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$4.50	92.45%	24
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$4.50	92.45%	24
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$4.49	92.50%	24
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$4.52	92.43%	24
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$4.52	92.52%	24
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$4.53	92.59%	24
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$4.54	92.45%	24
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$4.53	92.59%	24
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$4.53	92.41%	24
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$4.51	92.54%	24
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$4.53	92.50%	24
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$4.53	92.43%	24
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$4.54	92.57%	24
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$4.54	92.50%	24
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$4.53	92.54%	24
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$4.52	92.50%	24
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$4.53	92.45%	24
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$4.51	92.48%	24
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$4.51	92.50%	24
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$4.51	92.44%	24
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$4.50	92.47%	24
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$4.50	92.54%	24
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC	$4.49	92.41%	24
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$4.50	92.58%	24
4 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$4.51	92.60%	24
4 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$4.52	92.44%	24

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.6%epic 0.0%red 0.3%classified 7.6%rare 0.1%Ancient 0.7%Covert 0.2%pink 3.0%restricted 8.0%Legendary 8.0%Mythical 53.6%mil spec 18.0%best hit $246 (54.60x)